Nifty - Analysis for the coming weeks

Nifty | Range perspective:

- The price has been moving in this range for the last 2 weeks.
- The range is 650 points wide. Using the measurement objective provides us with a target of 650 points in either direction.

- This means that, whenever the price moves out of this range, we can expect 17k or 15k.
- I'd be looking to trade either direction with a strict SL.

- Currently, the bias is bearish because the HTF structure is bearish. I'd be willing to short near 16450-16400 if the price gives me an opportunity.
- In case, the price moves above 16450 and sustains, the intermediate bias will shift to bullish.

Nifty - M15

These are the levels that I am looking at.

- The initial supply zone is the point where the HTF sellers entered the range high and pushed the price downwards.
- The secondary supply is the point where the HTF sellers dumped the price today.

- The price is at the flip zone and can move either way. I am looking at 3 favourable scenarios where the HTF sellers defend their positions and push the price towards the unfilled gap.
- We can also observe the formation of the Head & Shoulder pattern, which will get confirmed only after the breakdown of the neckline.

- The breakdown of the H&S will also confirm the breakdown of the flip zone, in which case we can expect the price to fill the gap.
- The depth of H&S is about 270 points, which also aligns with the bottom of the unfilled gap.

- Hence, all of these factors are adding up for a beautiful short, either tomorrow or on Thursday.
- This analysis may or may not work out. So, please do not take any random trades based on this.

Nifty - M5

- Beware of the trendline breakout since there is a supply zone overhead. The breakout can be a fake breakout just to trap more longs before moving downwards.

Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful.

Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.

Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView

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Update (25 May):

- Breakout of the trend line to trap longs.
- Run into supply, dump back to take out all the long SLs.
- Clean 240+ points move from the highs.

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Update (25 May):

- Clear rejection from the secondary supply zone after trapping the longs.

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Update (26 May):
Almost hit the target of H&S and reversed. Front ran by 0.35%.

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