There is a reason why doctors don't use 1" SS pipe for endoscope. To solve any problem, first you need to understand the root cause of the problem. Then apply the best solution possible. Demonetization ( as it is being sold to the public ) is actually just a currency swap !
Indian Government wants to address three major problems with just one move i.e. Terrorism, Black Money and Fake Money, but unfortunately none of them can be solved by so called demonetization. Why? Because terrorists are not on someone's payroll and need monthly cheque. They are brainwashed people and ready to kill and die for free ! Besides, outside India, who cares about Indian Rupee? US dollar is the currency you need for international transaction. Black Money will also not going to get affected much. Former RBI chief Mr. Rajan is right that, rich will just find new ways to do the same thing! There are millions of different ways to curb corruption. Now third issue of fake money can be addressed with such move but effect are temporary. Because here you are targeting the end effect and not the source. Those who are in business of printing fake money will just have to do it afresh! Then, is the government going to put people in line for their own money for months again after 5 years ?! ;)
As the days passing by and looking the things, it looks like this is one of the biggest political stunt which will kill the crop in order to remove the weed. Because a smart person applies the best and effective solution first. If Government has pure intention at heart then it will address the important thing first, which in a nutshell makes one country great and other a disaster - Fair, strict and swift execution of the laws !
Anyway, as a trader / investor, it is time to rejoice. Because very good investment opportunities will materialize in near future if your investment horizon is long enough. Still the comprehensive effects on each sector needs to be seen but we are not constructive on Indian equities right now and just wafting patiently to engage at better levels.
Indian Government wants to address three major problems with just one move i.e. Terrorism, Black Money and Fake Money, but unfortunately none of them can be solved by so called demonetization. Why? Because terrorists are not on someone's payroll and need monthly cheque. They are brainwashed people and ready to kill and die for free ! Besides, outside India, who cares about Indian Rupee? US dollar is the currency you need for international transaction. Black Money will also not going to get affected much. Former RBI chief Mr. Rajan is right that, rich will just find new ways to do the same thing! There are millions of different ways to curb corruption. Now third issue of fake money can be addressed with such move but effect are temporary. Because here you are targeting the end effect and not the source. Those who are in business of printing fake money will just have to do it afresh! Then, is the government going to put people in line for their own money for months again after 5 years ?! ;)
As the days passing by and looking the things, it looks like this is one of the biggest political stunt which will kill the crop in order to remove the weed. Because a smart person applies the best and effective solution first. If Government has pure intention at heart then it will address the important thing first, which in a nutshell makes one country great and other a disaster - Fair, strict and swift execution of the laws !
Anyway, as a trader / investor, it is time to rejoice. Because very good investment opportunities will materialize in near future if your investment horizon is long enough. Still the comprehensive effects on each sector needs to be seen but we are not constructive on Indian equities right now and just wafting patiently to engage at better levels.
