NIFTY MIDCAP Select - Swing SHORT

2024年12月22日

Nifty Midcap Select index made high on 16th Sep 2024 and then declined about 10% over the following 8 weeks. Uncharacteristic of pullbacks in the current bull run that started from Apr'2023, this decline was longer, printed 3 wide range weekly RED candles and also sustained below 100 day EMA or 20 Week EMA.

The subsequent rally from mid-nov to mid-dec, though strong, did not have broader participation. The number of stocks above 100 D SMA went down from 80% on 16th Sep to 44% on 17th Dec (recent high).

Now, with sharp decline on 20th Dec'24, odds weigh strongly in favour of bears towards move to bottom end of the falling channel range which presents a SHORT trade opportunity for the next few weeks.

Shared for learning purposes.

2024年12月29日

交易开始

Doji week and trade set up remains intact.

1月4日

注释

The 20th Dec low remains unbroken after two weeks. Price has also climbed up pretty well(2.78%) thought the nature of climb is neither strong nor weak. These factors have weakened the SHORT trade set up. However, the Set up is still ON until 17th Dec high and the Sep falling trend line have NOT been taken out.

Top segment of the index MCAP IT services enjoys favourable narrative due to weakening rupee but weakening momentum shows signs of topping out.

1月12日

注释

12Jan2025 Weekly Review:

Last week, 20th Dec low broken and follow through also completed. Last week,(6th Jan to 10th Jan), MIDCAP select declined 5.59% and ended at weeks low indicating further downside move. Daily RSI went below 40

Multiple supports exist 1% below current level, which could attract bulls but SHORT set up remains strong towards lower boundary of falling channel (another 3% down move).

1月19日

交易结束：到达目标

Target reached with fantastic momentum. 6.68% move from trade initiation level.