Here is the weekend look at the Nasdaq 100 going into the trading week of April 18th – 22nd. The Nasdaq closed down the second week in a row dropping another 3% and is currently 17 % off the ATH. Price opened the week on Monday with a 2.5% drop. Price rallied up into the 9 ema on Tuesday & Wednesday but was rejected twice and finished the shortened trading week with 327 point drop on Thursday closing at the weekly low below the key 14000 level.
Going into this week price currently sits below the HTF Neutral Box and at the bottom of the LTF Neutral Box. For this reason, my bias is now Bearish to start the week. The key level to watch is the bottom of the LTF Neutral (13786). Because price failed to break back above the top of the Neutral Box a test of the bottom of the Neutral Box is likely. A good bounce from the bottom of the Neutral Box is possible but not guaranteed.
If price can hold above 13786 watch for a move back through 14000 to 14334 and then the 21ema at 14405. If price fails to hold above the 13786 level watch for a move to 13188 and a potential retest of the Mar 15th low at 12942.
Inflation, bond yields & the war in Ukraine will continue to dominate the news headlines. This will provide a complicated backdrop for earnings season which has started again. This week will feature earnings from NFLX, TSLA, HAL, JNJ, SNAP, BAC, AAL and many more. The results will set the tone going forward with a focus on how companies are managing supply chain issues and inflation. Powell is also scheduled to speak on Thursday which is always a potential market mover. One can also expect CNBC to start the "Sell in May and go away" narrative.
Although my bias this week is bearish one should be aware that from a longer term perspective the Nasdaq is trading in a large sideways consolidation pattern between 15268 and 12942 and has not established a trend. It is possible for price to move within this range for some time. For this reason, I continue to focus on shorter term trades between the fib levels and key pivots.
If you find my posts helpful please like my chart and consider following my on Twtitter @Sea2Sky_trader.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Bullard Speaks
Tuesday Housing Starts, Feds’s Evans Speaks & US API Crude Inventory
Wednesday Canadian CPI, Existing Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & Powell/Legarde Speak
Friday US PMI Data & Canadian Retail Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BAC, SCHW,
Tuesday HAL, HAS, JNJ, SI, IBM, NFLX
Wednesday AA, CSX, TSLA, UAL, KMI
Thursday AAL, NUE, DGX, UNP, SNAP
Friday CLF, KMB, NEM, SLB
BULLISH NOTES
BEARISH NOTES
Going into this week price currently sits below the HTF Neutral Box and at the bottom of the LTF Neutral Box. For this reason, my bias is now Bearish to start the week. The key level to watch is the bottom of the LTF Neutral (13786). Because price failed to break back above the top of the Neutral Box a test of the bottom of the Neutral Box is likely. A good bounce from the bottom of the Neutral Box is possible but not guaranteed.
If price can hold above 13786 watch for a move back through 14000 to 14334 and then the 21ema at 14405. If price fails to hold above the 13786 level watch for a move to 13188 and a potential retest of the Mar 15th low at 12942.
Inflation, bond yields & the war in Ukraine will continue to dominate the news headlines. This will provide a complicated backdrop for earnings season which has started again. This week will feature earnings from NFLX, TSLA, HAL, JNJ, SNAP, BAC, AAL and many more. The results will set the tone going forward with a focus on how companies are managing supply chain issues and inflation. Powell is also scheduled to speak on Thursday which is always a potential market mover. One can also expect CNBC to start the "Sell in May and go away" narrative.
Although my bias this week is bearish one should be aware that from a longer term perspective the Nasdaq is trading in a large sideways consolidation pattern between 15268 and 12942 and has not established a trend. It is possible for price to move within this range for some time. For this reason, I continue to focus on shorter term trades between the fib levels and key pivots.
If you find my posts helpful please like my chart and consider following my on Twtitter @Sea2Sky_trader.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Bullard Speaks
Tuesday Housing Starts, Feds’s Evans Speaks & US API Crude Inventory
Wednesday Canadian CPI, Existing Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & Powell/Legarde Speak
Friday US PMI Data & Canadian Retail Sales
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BAC, SCHW,
Tuesday HAL, HAS, JNJ, SI, IBM, NFLX
Wednesday AA, CSX, TSLA, UAL, KMI
Thursday AAL, NUE, DGX, UNP, SNAP
Friday CLF, KMB, NEM, SLB
BULLISH NOTES
- Positive earnings momentum
Yields drop
De-Escalation in Ukraine war
Inflation data surprised to downside
Dovish Tone from Powell & Fed Heads
BEARISH NOTES
- Negative earnings momentum
Yield continue to rise
Escalation of the war in Ukraine
Further lock downs in China
Inflation data come in strong
Hawkish tone from Powell and Fed heads
评论:
Here is a look at what I am calling the HTF & LTF neutral boxes. As you can see there is now a cluster of resistance around the 21 ema with the 2 x 382 fib retracements overlapping in that area. Means strong resistance but also strong support if price can break through that 14300 area.
评论:
Initial bounce off the bottom of the neutral was rejected at 14000. Making another run at the key level now. Above 14000 we may see some positive upside momentum. Be ready for sharp reversals at any of the levels. If a level is broken easily expect trend continuation in the direction of the break.
