NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (Nov21-25)

已更新

The Nasdaq closed the week down 1.18 % after trading in a 595-point range. Last week turned out to be period of consolidation after the massive move up on the pervious Thurs/Friday. The Nasdaq traded in tight range just above the ema cloud at the breakout point from the 1.5 month base. The 200 sma and downward trendline will likely continue to be and upside price magnet. The NasdaQ is short term bullish above the 21 ema and short term bearish below. Here are a few point I am considering this week.

• Price digesting previous week’s massive move up
• Price held a level above the 9/21/55 emas
• 200 SMA remains price magnet to upside
• Expect bearish price action below the 21 ema
• Low volume trading week ahead with market closed on Thursday for US Thanksgiving
• Retail in focus going into end of year
• Historically bullish period for stocks
• Longer term trend remains down
• Yields & USD have dropped despite hawkish talk from Fed Heads
• FOMC minutes may be a market mover.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday Canadian Retail Sales, Fed’s Mester, George & Bullard speak
Wednesday US Initial Jobless Claims,US Durable Goods, US PMI Flash, Univ Mich Sentiment & FOMC Minutes
Thursday US Holiday
Friday Nothing notable

NOTABLE EARNINGS

DAY EARNINGS
Monday A, DELL, FUTU, SJM, ZM
Tuesday ADSK, BBY, BHP, BIDU, DKS, DLTR, HPQ, MDT
Wednesday DE
Thursday Nothing notable
Friday Nothing notable

BULLISH NOTES

Above 9/21/55 ema
200 SMA price magnet
Historically bullish period
Hawkish talk from Fed Heads has not spooked market
Potential positive reaction to FOMC minutes
VIX back to neutral

BEARISH NOTES

Longer term trend is down
Price has already retraced 50% of previous move
Potential shock event
Potential negative reaction to FOMC Minutes
No high volume + VIX spike capitulation yet

Nothing burger of a day. NQ continues to pull back into the support zone. 21 ema test look like. Very controlled down move is more bullish than bearish. Low volume week so expect the unexpected. Econ data due out tomorrow may move the mrk.

Controlled p/b into the 21 ema resolved to the upside. Down trend line broken & getting bullish follow through after PCI data. FOMC minutes will be key. Upside target of the 200 sma still in play.

Daily look at NQ. Lagging the ES but still looking bullish. Above emas and within striking distance of the 200 sma. If the ES rejects right at the 200 sma look for the NQ to follow as one can drag the other down. Entire market looking a the same things right now. Most expecting price to drop soon. This sets up a contrarian play, Meaning if price doesn't reject there will be a massive short covering rally. Watch for a double top here, but if the double top fails look for a very bullish move.