NVDA, Elliot Wave Theory: Analysis and Strategies

已更新

Nvidia, is expected to present earning results today after market.
As undefined signs in the last days, I decided to make an Elliot wave analysis to check where we are at this point as this stock is long one for me.
I was surprised, scanning Fibonacchi’s on Elliot, that 3rd wave is exended.
No doubt as per fundamentals and innovation that this is a long term growth one. The thing now are its technicals to me, meanwhile we enter in a 4th wave, cost of opportunity is going to take an starring place.
Always taking in a dollars positions. Other countrys where money is not that robust one and or devaluated, shall be the same if your money is in an Elliot 4th wave for a long time or not. Also remember 4th could be not that 0.618 worse point but a 0.382 wich is not bad if your money devaluates less at that point. Then, 5th wave and your devaluation will be double key reasons to stay long.
Back in US dollars, think if you are in and the fourth wave takes place, two strategies come to mind: one is to stay into the 4th wave based on the fundamentals and innovation drivers of this stock, and also accumulate to catch the 5th wave, that well prepared. The the other strategie of these two is just stay out until the 5th takes place if you have a better one to invest, repurchasing when the 5th wave starts, only if you feel good at time management without losing the opportunity cost.
Conclusions> if fundamentals and innovation remain strong, there seems to be no room to lose for this growth investing.
If you are not there and the fourth wave takes place, you will have enough time to buy it.

I hope you like this analysis and it is useful for you.
Invest at your own risk.

注释

Let's see what happens. As described, the 3rd wave is extended. Just thinking that it could stay up to its target price.

注释

Hi There!

If I were Elliot, I would say that we should wait to see what the maximum is, and that is how far the drawdown will be later, in order to measure 4th with Fibonacci.
When there is a bullish wave, everyone is optimistic, even when it goes down little bit, nobody will want to get off this positive state of mind. Conclusions: fortunately and as we as humans have predictive psychological behaviors, it could happen that, before 4th takes place, our stock makes a pullback, rise again and there, the instability begins. Volume - price relation system, and top down macro fundamental analysis will be a great ally, as earnings are already discounted in the price. The price zone $129 is the 0.618 Fibonacci, where it has the highest quality support, but it could also fall in the area of 0.382 and this is the $ 185usd zone. The worst scenario of course is 0618.
Notice that stock has started its positive rising mood with a divergent volume, good signal to follow buying opportunities,and remember prices are not definitive numbers but “number zones”.

Note: This update was written two days before, but it is still in.

注释

Strong fundamentals, I like it for the long term if innovaton remains stable.
Short term opportunity cost is on the table.