I just love these Gartley Harmonic patterns, XABCD. They are just so clear. NZD/USD had a massive first leg of this pattern XA, nearly 600 pips and then the next two legs of the pattern (AB & BC) seem to have completed, beautifully. Now, a potential 78.6% retracement of first leg XA, in the form of last leg CD, should be the logical next move, if the harmonics stay true. That will be a 300-pip move down for this pair from here. Once the pair hits point D, the pair may rally higher again, provided USD weakness prevails in the coming months.
交易开始:
Since publishing this idea, the pair moved 150 pips lower (half of what was predicted by harmonic pattern). Almost tempted to close the trade, as there is a huge event tomorrow--RBNZ, policy announcement. That puts huge uncertainty to this trade. I still think odds favor a lower NZD. I don't think Wheeler & the CB desires higher NZD. So, with USD on the move higher (hawkish Fed), and "potentially dovish" RBNZ, this pair could decisively move lower to 0.70. I really hope so!
评论:
RBNZ policy event, just 4hrs to go. So, be very careful. Right now, NZD is not showing any sign of fear of dovish comments from the central bank.