I believe the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged at 22% in the upcoming MPC meeting. Due to the following points:
1. Inflation has been decreasing month by month due to lower food inflation, which holds greater weightage in our national CPI. However, it's important to note that this decrease may be temporary, as it coincides with the wheat cutting crop time, which will decrease wheat prices. But this is a one-time event, and inflation may increase again next month when prices stabilize.
2. The upcoming budget is expected to widen the country's deficit, which will necessitate increased taxes, potentially leading to an increase in inflation.
3. Conversations with the IMF suggest that they may recommend additional taxes, which could contribute to a decrease in inflation.
4. Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran could lead to an increase in petrol prices, thereby contributing to inflation.
As I check many poll results, the monetary policy rate remains the same
1. Inflation has been decreasing month by month due to lower food inflation, which holds greater weightage in our national CPI. However, it's important to note that this decrease may be temporary, as it coincides with the wheat cutting crop time, which will decrease wheat prices. But this is a one-time event, and inflation may increase again next month when prices stabilize.
2. The upcoming budget is expected to widen the country's deficit, which will necessitate increased taxes, potentially leading to an increase in inflation.
3. Conversations with the IMF suggest that they may recommend additional taxes, which could contribute to a decrease in inflation.
4. Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran could lead to an increase in petrol prices, thereby contributing to inflation.
As I check many poll results, the monetary policy rate remains the same