From this chart it would appear that the Eurodollar market (NOT EURUSD, but the offshore USD market) acts as a good leading indicator for the stock market with a good lead. The last peak was 2015 which suggests recession within 4 years so it fits with the 2018/19 recession narrative. We have also seen a peak in M2/BLS Raw Industrials which is the first market to peak well ahead of recession.
评论:
Notice that on average the Eurodollar market has dropped nearly 4.5% on average prior to recession. Currently it is at 2.3% so halfway based on previous markets which points to a 2019 market top