QQQ (28 November)

November's monthly candle is closer to a hanging man than a hammer, but the context determines whether it’s actually bearish, since a true hanging man requires 1) a long lower shadow (yes), 2) a small real body near the top of the range (yes) & 3) appears after a strong uptrend (definitely yes)

• The candle is bearish only if the next candle confirms with a break below the low
  
• A hammer has the same shape, but appears after a downtrend, which is not the case here
  
• So structurally it matches a hanging man, not a hammer, but a hanging man is a weak signal on higher timeframes without confirmation
  

The setup appears neutral-to-risky, but not confirmed bearish

• The close is still strong, near the top of the range
  
• There’s no follow-through since November just ended
  
• Momentum (RSI/stoch) are cooling, but not rolling over
  
• Price is still well above the 20 SMA
  
• Historically on QQQ, monthly hanging man candles often lead to nothing unless the next month breaks the prior month’s low
  
• The signal is warning, not reversal
  

The long-term structure is still upward

• The 20 SMA around $516 is the first major support in a correction
  
• Price at ~$619 is massively extended above all long-term trend baselines
  
• This makes a blow-off or exhaustion candles more likely
  
• Big wicks more common
  
• Long-term risk higher than short-term risk, but none of this says “trend over"
  

The November candle is has bearish potential, not confirmed bearish

• The up trend is strong which reduces the reliability of reversal patterns
  
• SMAs are flattening, but not breaking so long-term uptrend fully intact
  
• Confirmation is missing, or not yet realized
  

Trend is still bullish & the candle is just noise at the top of an extended move

• If QQQ breaks below the low of that monthly candle in December (~$590), it would confirm the hanging man & open a deeper retrace toward the 20 SMA (~$516)
  
• If next month stays above the low, the hanging man is invalid & the trend continues