ROKU small drop then big pop - using harmonics and wolfekraft

2022年4月17日

Look for a drop to around 104 (102-107 range = bounce zone) to start next week, followed by a pre-earnings run to 130s, then earnings pop/continuation to low 160s. After that it will be time to get short for a drop back to 120s-130s (will revisit and adjust for precise levels along the way and send updates).

Logic:

- My model for overall market (in sync with crypto) is for a small decline early next week- SPY 432 - and then upside through April 29-May 11 - SPY 450-455... after this expecting final leg down of bottoming structure (~ SPY 400-415 by late summer/early fall) to complete bottoming structure prior to starting a bullish impulse wave to new highs into 2023. The math for ROKU aligns with this direction and timeline, and so do a lot of other names!!

- Correlation to NFLX has been a thing for ROKU in the past - my model for NFLX expects Bullish Earnings price action (earnings this week)... pop and continuation to 400s by early May followed by drop back to 350ish. This schedule indicates ROKU will bottom (locally) prior to NFLX earnings release and then begin its own pre-earnings run up.

Chart:

- Completed Bullish Navarro 200 harmonic March 15th at the 98 level. The "enter long" for the start of retracement to 272 (pt1, expect by 2023), 500 (pt2, later...), 732 (pt3, like 3-5 years probably) is sustained run above 137
- Post-Navaro ROKU completed a Bearish Shark (semi-major) Harmonic and hit pt1, pt2 is 104

- I am noticing a larger (major) Bearish Harmonic* forming that will complete C near the 104 level, and would complete with a run to D = 161-168 {(*) could be any of the following: Max Gartley (most likely), Max Bat, Leonardo}

- Also noticing a (minor) Bullish Harmonic** forming in conjunction with (*) - (**) would complete D around 104 and have a 1.618 retracement to 161 and is likely a harmonic known as a TOTAL 1

- There was a bearish wolfe wave end of march with 1-4 projection/support still needing to be hit to complete downside move. This aligns with the 104 level early this coming week (4/18-4/20)

- There was a bullish wolfe wave that broke out of channel end of last week and will need to re-test top of channel before running to 1-4 projection/resistance... guess were the top of channel retest level is... hello 104 (again). Note that options are priced for move to 103-121 next week, 104 makes sense in alignment with chart structure.

Prediction::

- Based on the above info, if ROKU bounces around 104 early next week my max initial target going into earnings is 139 in the right conditions (i.e. NFLX gets big earnings pop, market starts bullish run into May) - 139 would means 1-4 wolfe projection/resistance is hit by around Apr 25-27th, ROKU earnings is Apr 28. If this happens that would trigger enter long (above 137) on the retracement for major Bullish Navarro 200. A more conservative initial target is mid 120s going into earnings, this would save some room to continue to 1-4 projection post-earnings.

- Target by May 10 is 161

- Expectation after target is drop from 161 to test the 137 entry level. This drop would be in sync with expected market bottom. Depending on when Market bottom and where, ROKU could drop further than 137 in accordance with (*).

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, but if you're curious how I am playing this:
- looking to enter Apr 29 120.00 calls and May 13 130.00 calls IF ROKU bounces from 104ish early next week. Would take profits on the Apr 29s before the earnings release if my prediction materializes, and let the May 13s ride to target.

Bless you all, let me know your thoughts.