The Swiss franc is lower on the day amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to actively weaken the currency.
As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their currency to the euro. When the peg was first introduced, the single-largest daily inflow in the GLD occurred but had been wound down throughout the last few years. Traders matched that inflow into the GLD when the SNB pulled the plug on the peg.
However, I think the SNB is playing with fire. They have already taken a 60 billion CHF hit to their FX reserves due to the abrupt end of the euro peg. Furthermore, it became too expensive to keep the peg on the euro, so the SNB will likely hint at intervention as a means to keep traders from piling into it. This could work in the short-term, but these methods usually do not have lasting effects. With a balance sheet of almost 90 percent of GDP, the SNB's bluff will likely be called out in the long-run.
The franc has been a "safe" haven for investors, whether the central bank likes it or not. If global turmoil continues to strengthen, I expect the franc, and presumably gold, to increase throughout the year.
Keeping in mind, there is a 40 percent weekly appreciation that has to be digested.
The correlation should be watched further.
As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their currency to the euro. When the peg was first introduced, the single-largest daily inflow in the GLD occurred but had been wound down throughout the last few years. Traders matched that inflow into the GLD when the SNB pulled the plug on the peg.
However, I think the SNB is playing with fire. They have already taken a 60 billion CHF hit to their FX reserves due to the abrupt end of the euro peg. Furthermore, it became too expensive to keep the peg on the euro, so the SNB will likely hint at intervention as a means to keep traders from piling into it. This could work in the short-term, but these methods usually do not have lasting effects. With a balance sheet of almost 90 percent of GDP, the SNB's bluff will likely be called out in the long-run.
The franc has been a "safe" haven for investors, whether the central bank likes it or not. If global turmoil continues to strengthen, I expect the franc, and presumably gold, to increase throughout the year.
Keeping in mind, there is a 40 percent weekly appreciation that has to be digested.
The correlation should be watched further.
