In 2020, the Shanghai Index may rise more than expected

As 2019 years pass, it should be objective and accurate to look back at the analysis and judgment I made in 2018.


Shcomp has had 6 rise and adjustment cycles in the past 20 years
ups in the market, the average is about 24 months, while the decline of the market mostly more than 40 months. each rise is more than 100% increase, the adjustment range is about 50% per time.
So by comparing historical trends, we can look at the 2019 trend.

It has been running for 11 months, up nearly 25%, and if you compare any of the gains in history, it seems that none of the conditions are met. So let's assume that this is a bull market, which means either doubling the increase or taking about 24 months.

So I infer that the coming year could be a more than expected rise cycle, and although many people are optimistic about the chances of 2020, but everyone is more conservative, thinking that 3500 points is the limit, and some even say that the 2020 annual chart close should be a negative line.

But I am more optimistic, assuming that the increase of 10 months, just to meet the length of 24 months time, or, there is a wave of rapid upward trend, to 5000 points, to complete 100% of the increase conditions.

Either way, it's going to be a rise, so I think it's going to be more than expected for 2020.

In addition to the analysis of technical charts, we look at the fundamentals, also support a decent bull market.

First, the trade-war cease-fire is an important signal for everyone's emotional repair, and businesses will get a respite and adjust their strategic layout.

Second, for the "financial" reform and "state-owned enterprises" reform, was supposed to be done in 2015, because of the "share disaster", temporarily put on hold. Now it's time to start over, which will give the market new hype.

Third, securities are light assets, for the restructuring of China's economy, foreign capital will not buy real estate such as real estate, so buying stocks is the best choice, and this year's continued inflow of foreign capital is only a start, the next 5-10 years, the proportion of foreign ownership will be greatly increased.

Fourth, 15 years opened the A-share de-bubble, now look, lubricants are almost gone, the market really can't move.

the east capacity shift to the west, it is equivalent to China's capacity transfer like Africa, in China to create a "four small dragons" is not a far-flung thing, so there is no need to dwarf themselves.

Conclusion: I am very optimistic about China's A-share market in 2020.
Investment advice: Internet of Things plate, 5g, software, communications equipment, electronic components, smart wear. There is also a lot of room for the securities sector.