Silver - 33 Moons [And An Options Opportunity]
已更新
(Using 3-Day candles for visibility only. Consult weekly/daily yourself)
I have an open call on Gold in that I believe a new high will be set, but it won't actually be bullish, because metals are going to dump pretty hard in the future and try to make retail sell their bullion.
Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped?
I hadn't paid a lot of attention to Silver and was on the sidelines until it dumped 10 percent this week, and now I believe there is a crazy good opportunity.
The problem with Gold is that the Chinese Communist Party bought a lot of it and they're going to get margin called or are the ones actually short selling.
The problem with silver is that there's not a lot of it left and it's really needed for technology.
When smart money wants to buy they accumulate at low prices and distribute at high prices. Often times what precedes the biggest moves are smaller moves that serve the purpose of wiping out and shaking out early short sellers and trapping retail traders who just love to buy high and sell low.
There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the world right now, as you can tell from the weekend "Prigozhin Coup," which I cover the implications of for the US Dollar here.
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
But the biggest geopolitical risk is what happens if Xi Jinping gets up one morning and dumps the CCP. Nobody believes this can happen and nobody is prepared for it.
But when it happens, it will implicate the whole world for both Xi and China to survive, they will have to weaponize the persecution of the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong committed by the Jiang Zemin faction starting in 1999.
Since much of the world's financial sector and governments have dirtied themselves with Jiang in the persecution, when that day comes, it will mean that everything, everywhere is limit down. The liquidity will be gone, the algos will be off. Markets will no longer be made.
It is what it is.
In the meantime, nothing about what's going on with silver is bearish. Prices are low and it makes you want to sell, but it's actually a situation where you want to go long.
I believe that $21.20~ or $20.80 is what it's aiming for, and afterwards, the target will be at least $29.
So, what about options? One of the ways you can trade this move is calls on the SLV BlackRock ETF.
Getting in at $19~ and seeing a $10 move would push the ETF to at least $30.
There are two things that are significant about this:
1. Jan '24 at the money calls (based on the price right now) are $2.21
2. Average Implied volatility is only 24% and the 52W week low is 23.6% and the 52W high is 36%.
What this means is that calls are cheap and if iVol were to expand on a bull run from say 26% to 40% you'd pick up an extra ~$1 per contract on top of the strike gains.
The AGQ 2x Bull ETF has even more potential upside but it's a lot more risk and the swings are a lot more dramatic, for really obvious reasons.
All of this also means you can speculate in mining ETFs and individual miners. You need to use the underlying commodities as your metronome, though.
But this also means you'd have to be able to hold a winning position for 3 or 6 months.
You'd want to take profits at $27 and $29.
But if you get ahead of yourself and buy the $30+ high thinking that $50 and $100 and $500 are coming, you're likely to get seriously hurt.
Something is going to happen in this world between now and Q1 2024 and it's not going to be good news for the people lost in delusion wanting to have happy days and be a big baller.
Be careful, and happy trading.
I have an open call on Gold in that I believe a new high will be set, but it won't actually be bullish, because metals are going to dump pretty hard in the future and try to make retail sell their bullion.
Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped?
I hadn't paid a lot of attention to Silver and was on the sidelines until it dumped 10 percent this week, and now I believe there is a crazy good opportunity.
The problem with Gold is that the Chinese Communist Party bought a lot of it and they're going to get margin called or are the ones actually short selling.
The problem with silver is that there's not a lot of it left and it's really needed for technology.
When smart money wants to buy they accumulate at low prices and distribute at high prices. Often times what precedes the biggest moves are smaller moves that serve the purpose of wiping out and shaking out early short sellers and trapping retail traders who just love to buy high and sell low.
There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the world right now, as you can tell from the weekend "Prigozhin Coup," which I cover the implications of for the US Dollar here.
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
But the biggest geopolitical risk is what happens if Xi Jinping gets up one morning and dumps the CCP. Nobody believes this can happen and nobody is prepared for it.
But when it happens, it will implicate the whole world for both Xi and China to survive, they will have to weaponize the persecution of the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong committed by the Jiang Zemin faction starting in 1999.
Since much of the world's financial sector and governments have dirtied themselves with Jiang in the persecution, when that day comes, it will mean that everything, everywhere is limit down. The liquidity will be gone, the algos will be off. Markets will no longer be made.
It is what it is.
In the meantime, nothing about what's going on with silver is bearish. Prices are low and it makes you want to sell, but it's actually a situation where you want to go long.
I believe that $21.20~ or $20.80 is what it's aiming for, and afterwards, the target will be at least $29.
So, what about options? One of the ways you can trade this move is calls on the SLV BlackRock ETF.
Getting in at $19~ and seeing a $10 move would push the ETF to at least $30.
There are two things that are significant about this:
1. Jan '24 at the money calls (based on the price right now) are $2.21
2. Average Implied volatility is only 24% and the 52W week low is 23.6% and the 52W high is 36%.
What this means is that calls are cheap and if iVol were to expand on a bull run from say 26% to 40% you'd pick up an extra ~$1 per contract on top of the strike gains.
The AGQ 2x Bull ETF has even more potential upside but it's a lot more risk and the swings are a lot more dramatic, for really obvious reasons.
All of this also means you can speculate in mining ETFs and individual miners. You need to use the underlying commodities as your metronome, though.
But this also means you'd have to be able to hold a winning position for 3 or 6 months.
You'd want to take profits at $27 and $29.
But if you get ahead of yourself and buy the $30+ high thinking that $50 and $100 and $500 are coming, you're likely to get seriously hurt.
Something is going to happen in this world between now and Q1 2024 and it's not going to be good news for the people lost in delusion wanting to have happy days and be a big baller.
Be careful, and happy trading.
注释
I suspect silver has a flirtation with $26 ahead of it. But I still think that it's too early to be seriously bullish, and with today being the last day of the month, it could give all the gains back tomorrow as a standard retrace/注释
Silver seems to most assuredly be willing to break the $25.5 high now.Not sure there will be any pullback and I don't buy green candles though.
But after the high is broken, it's not a safe breakout trade. Instead, it's a place to look for a failure and get short with a target under $20.
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