Macro backdrop:
1. Fed has signaled no rate cuts this year = less liquidity for risk/growth assets
2. DXY looks ready to rise = softness for dollar alternatives i.e. BTC & Gold
3. Geopolitical tensions & risk of war leading to uncertainty
Bearish Chart Evidence:
1. 3 consecutive lower lows
2. Upside channel break
3. RSI below 50
4. MACD Convergence
5. Volume reduction
6. Money Flow Index moving down
7. Larssen Line turned bearish
Potential patterns playing out:
If $118 support is lost, cup & handle could be in play with an ultimate target of $40... but there are many levels between where it can find support
$118 -$120 level coincides with bull market support band. If we lose this level, expect further downside to next support at $80.
$$118 - $80 roughly corresponds with golden pocket fib retracement on weekly timeframe. High chance of reclaiming this zone to move higher.
Targets:
1st Target: $118
2nd Target: $100
3rd Target: $80
1. Fed has signaled no rate cuts this year = less liquidity for risk/growth assets
2. DXY looks ready to rise = softness for dollar alternatives i.e. BTC & Gold
3. Geopolitical tensions & risk of war leading to uncertainty
Bearish Chart Evidence:
1. 3 consecutive lower lows
2. Upside channel break
3. RSI below 50
4. MACD Convergence
5. Volume reduction
6. Money Flow Index moving down
7. Larssen Line turned bearish
Potential patterns playing out:
- Potential repeating cup & handle fractal
- Potential 5 wave elliot correction
If $118 support is lost, cup & handle could be in play with an ultimate target of $40... but there are many levels between where it can find support
$118 -$120 level coincides with bull market support band. If we lose this level, expect further downside to next support at $80.
$$118 - $80 roughly corresponds with golden pocket fib retracement on weekly timeframe. High chance of reclaiming this zone to move higher.
Targets:
1st Target: $118
2nd Target: $100
3rd Target: $80
交易开始
交易结束：到达目标
Let's see if there is any retracement or consolidation before continuing lower.