It is easier to see this from SPX monthly chart. The top trend line since 2009 was breached last few years due to a lot of money being printed.
If not for the money printing, today SPX should be at about 3400.
Now the monetary contracting cycle is starting, I think SPX is heading towards its 50 month moving average line and probably dip a bit below it. I am currently seeing we bottom out near 3400-3500.
If not for the money printing, today SPX should be at about 3400.
Now the monetary contracting cycle is starting, I think SPX is heading towards its 50 month moving average line and probably dip a bit below it. I am currently seeing we bottom out near 3400-3500.
评论:
This is meant to be my view of the market in the mid term, for the rest of the year. Before that we might have short term bottom near 3800-3900 very soon.