Global Risk-On vs Local Weakness – Dec 4th Market Outlook

1) Macro Overview – Capital Rotation into AI, Gold, Tech, Crypto
High-confidence signals:

Fed rate cut probability: 87–90%

DXY downtrend: bullish for Gold, EM equities, crypto

U.S. 10Y yield: ~4.08% (stable, risk-on supportive)

Sentiment: Risk-on (score 7/10)

China stimulus: supports base metals & commodities

Market interpretation:
Lower yields + weaker USD → capital rotates into AI, semiconductors, gold, growth stocks, and selective crypto.

2) BIST100 – Global Rally, but Local Divergence

Despite positive global momentum, BIST underperforms due to domestic structural factors.

Why BIST is lagging:

Persistent equity fund outflows (TEFAS)

High real interest rates → pressure on industrial margins

Weak liquidity & fragmented flows

Foreign positioning still limited

Key Technical Levels (High SEO weight)

Support: 11,000 → 10,900

Resistance: 11,200 → 11,300–11,350

Bias: Selective bullish, not broad-based

Strong sectors:

Banks (AKBNK, YKBNK, GARAN)

Gold miners (KOZAL)

Defensive Energy (TUPRS, AKSEN)

Exporters (TOASO, FROTO)

Weak areas:

High-debt industrials

Low-liquidity midcaps

Stories dependent on short-term sentiment

3) U.S. Stock Market – AI & Semiconductors Remain the Core Trend

S&P 500 (~6,849) and Nasdaq futures continue to price a soft landing narrative.

Leading themes (SEO keywords):

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Semiconductors

Cloud Infrastructure

HealthTech

Institutional view:
AI remains the dominant macro-theme for Q4 and early 2026.

4) Gold, Commodities & Crypto – Trend Continuation
Gold (XAUUSD / XAUTRY)

Spot: ~4,200

Strong uptrend, supported by:
• weak USD
• geopolitical risk
• lower real yields

Mid-term targets: 4,500 – 5,000
(This is heavily searched; TradingView pushes such ranges upward.)

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Volatile Bullish Structure

BTC trades near 93,000, bouncing strongly from the 88k–90k demand zone.

ETF inflows (~$222M) confirm institutional participation.

Market structure: higher lows forming, but volatility remains elevated.

Altcoin radar (high-engagement tags):
SOL, SUI, ONDO, FET
→ selective rallies, no broad alt-season yet.

5) Ordo618 Strategy Playbook – Actionable Plan
Short-Term Trading (Index/Futures)

BIST30 December Futures:

Bias: Bullish above 12,000

Buy Zone: 12,000 – 12,250

Targets: 12,500 → 12,600

Invalidation: below 11,950 / 12,150

Portfolio Positioning (Global Audience SEO)

Equities (Turkey):

Prefer banks & exporters

Wait for pullbacks before adding size

Thematic Funds / ETFs:

AI, Tech, Semiconductors

Renewable/Green Energy

Hedging:

10–15% exposure to Gold (XAUTRY or XAUUSD)

Crypto Allocation:

BTC core, ETH secondary

Altcoins max 5% of total book

6) Key Risks – What Can Break the Trend
Local Risk:

Prolonged equity fund outflows → structural sell pressure on BIST.

Global Risk:

If U.S. macro weakens too quickly → soft landing narrative flips into hard landing fears → global risk-off.

Protection Strategy:

Keep 15–20% cash buffer

Strict stop-loss discipline

Hold a Gold hedge

Avoid overleverage