5 Leg Push Higher to Finish C & Y, Fill the Gap & Finish Wave B
This my best guess of the EW count. Keep in mind that the Dow and NYA both peaked on June 8th. I think the bear market rally finished for NYA and the Dow in June. However, due to the S&P 500's distortions of being controlled by about 15 stocks, it has moved above the June 8th high. It is likely forming a divergence as it did with the Jan and Feb peaks. Market Breadth and Sentiment indicators are pointing to a crash move, just as they did back in Feb.
I think we rally tomorrow as the Republicans unveil their plan for stimulus this week. They want 1 trillion dollars. The Democrats want 3 trillion dollars. The two political parties only have 2 weeks to get this done before the August 10th recess. Realistically, I don't think that is enough time to get it done. I think the two political parties will argue over the stimulus and that stock market sells off on that. The perfect storm is present. See the reasons below.
The catalysts:
The election (uncertainty)
Covid-19 cases trending higher
On July 30th a major contraction in Q2 GDP
Q2 Earnings
US-China tensions
Trump has scrapped plans for a phase 2 deal with China
Stimulus Effect Wearing Off
New State Lockdowns
New Stimulus Debate and Delay
Uptick in Unemployment with New Lockdowns
I think we rally tomorrow as the Republicans unveil their plan for stimulus this week. They want 1 trillion dollars. The Democrats want 3 trillion dollars. The two political parties only have 2 weeks to get this done before the August 10th recess. Realistically, I don't think that is enough time to get it done. I think the two political parties will argue over the stimulus and that stock market sells off on that. The perfect storm is present. See the reasons below.
The catalysts:
The election (uncertainty)
Covid-19 cases trending higher
On July 30th a major contraction in Q2 GDP
Q2 Earnings
US-China tensions
Trump has scrapped plans for a phase 2 deal with China
Stimulus Effect Wearing Off
New State Lockdowns
New Stimulus Debate and Delay
Uptick in Unemployment with New Lockdowns