As I break down the chart on SPX, a few things that stand out to me.
I can count a clean 5 wave pattern up after the bounce off the lower trendline just below 2600.
a) Within this move, wave 3 was a perfect 1.618 extension off wave 1-2.
b) The proposed wave 5 just completed 5 subwaves today, May 10, and was a 1:1 extension of waves 3-4.
This suggests to me that this 5 wave move up (which I am not ruling out as a new impulse wave up, though I am currently considering it part of an extended correction pattern) is done.
If this is the case, then we are due for a pull back (and the overbought RSI would also support this).
I see SPX pulling back to the following possible levels:
a) 38.2% retracement: 2676
b) 50% retracement: 2660
c) 61.8% retracement: 2644
d) Falling through all these levels, potentially signaling an even greater correction period.
If there is to be a bounce, the zone between 38.2% and 50% retracement (2660 to 2675) would intersect wave 4, and thus deserves close attention.
If we do fall back into the triangle pattern that was just broken today, we can be sure the bears will see this as a confirmation of their market bias, and thus it is possible we see a more dramatic move down as they increase their short positions.
I can count a clean 5 wave pattern up after the bounce off the lower trendline just below 2600.
a) Within this move, wave 3 was a perfect 1.618 extension off wave 1-2.
b) The proposed wave 5 just completed 5 subwaves today, May 10, and was a 1:1 extension of waves 3-4.
This suggests to me that this 5 wave move up (which I am not ruling out as a new impulse wave up, though I am currently considering it part of an extended correction pattern) is done.
If this is the case, then we are due for a pull back (and the overbought RSI would also support this).
I see SPX pulling back to the following possible levels:
a) 38.2% retracement: 2676
b) 50% retracement: 2660
c) 61.8% retracement: 2644
d) Falling through all these levels, potentially signaling an even greater correction period.
If there is to be a bounce, the zone between 38.2% and 50% retracement (2660 to 2675) would intersect wave 4, and thus deserves close attention.
If we do fall back into the triangle pattern that was just broken today, we can be sure the bears will see this as a confirmation of their market bias, and thus it is possible we see a more dramatic move down as they increase their short positions.
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Here is my current working thesis on the wave patterns for SPX. Subject to change (or be confirmed) based on the next few days of trading.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?