[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX Analysis

2024年12月16日

Now, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView:



It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory, primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day.

Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels.

IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040.

The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies.

Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.

2024年12月18日

交易开始

Total deny zone reached -> total fallout

1月20日

注释

01/20 new weekly thread: