Timing the next US stock market crash. An RSI bedtime story...

We have ever shortening boom bust cycles... Using RSI as a gauge every so often we see deep dips in RSI. (I use 144 RSI not 14 and this is a monthly timeframe.)

The first one from the Panic of 1893 to the Great Depression of 1932. ~40 years.

The second one from the true end of the Great Depression (1942--US WWII production boom) to the Nixon-Vietnam-Energy crisis crash of 1978. ~32 years.

The third cycle from the after the Nixon Era crash to the Wall Street greed-induced Housing Market Crash of 2008. ~31 years.

The fourth cycle I am guessing will be a huge bank liquidity crisis crash (already underway) or could be a US debt driven crash. I am saying 30 years which would be 2039.

15 more years of easy livin'!

评论:

I should name the last cycle the "Monetary Creation Cycle" as I believe most of the gains are and will be driven by the massive amounts of money creation which will create ever diminishing returns in productivity rather than massive increases of productivity. If I were to just throw a number out, I would say it's 50/50.

50% true increase production and production efficiency and 50% simple massive monetary creation (think of that like fudging the numbers). And it is exactly that second reason that will lead to the 2039 crash and bank liquidation and debt liquidation event.