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标准普尔500指数
做空
2022年11月12日
Cyclical Apocalypse 2023
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The recession we predicted in August is almost here. Prepare for monetary meltdown. Things to look forward to next year:
Mass layoffs (started in q4) and spike in unemployment rate
Retail earnings miss heavily with a bad holiday season
Industrial production drops sharply
Used car bubble pops
Mass consumer defaults on car loans
Housing market collapse
Credit spread blowout
Zombie companies reduced to rubble
Mass bankruptcies
Negative real growth in all four macro sectors (income, production, consumption, employment, etc)
Various crypto exchanges insolvent
Mass panic and bank runs
SPY -30% to -70% drop
Disinflation and then deflation (not stagflation)
Energy bear market
Corporate rates turn into junk
Municipal bond meltdown
Emergency fed pivot but only after something dire breaks
Massive bond rally (tail end)
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