Ask Not How Low Will It Go, Rather Ask How Long Will It Last?!
Clear three-leg stepwise downtrend. Monster rallies have occurred at 42, 63 and 70-day timeframes.
Current decline is at the 42-day mark. Had a huge green candle there before that lasted just a week.
Longer rally came at the 63 and 70 day marks. I do not pretend to know how much lower this will go.
Observing only how long it may take to pivot. A pivot to weekly countertrend move may occur next week, after 42 days.
IF it moves up for a week, likely to crush down to new LOTY in mid to late October, projecting around 17-25 Oct.
NB: Last Mon/Tues in October is 24/25. Back in '29 it was 28/29 October. Elections will spark a relief rally, they always get one.
Then Santa comes to town. The Longer the bear lasts, the Stronger the ensuing bounce.
But Jan-April 23 will be more Grinchy IMO. Stay Tuned!
Current decline is at the 42-day mark. Had a huge green candle there before that lasted just a week.
Longer rally came at the 63 and 70 day marks. I do not pretend to know how much lower this will go.
Observing only how long it may take to pivot. A pivot to weekly countertrend move may occur next week, after 42 days.
IF it moves up for a week, likely to crush down to new LOTY in mid to late October, projecting around 17-25 Oct.
NB: Last Mon/Tues in October is 24/25. Back in '29 it was 28/29 October. Elections will spark a relief rally, they always get one.
Then Santa comes to town. The Longer the bear lasts, the Stronger the ensuing bounce.
But Jan-April 23 will be more Grinchy IMO. Stay Tuned!
评论:
Day 43>44 scheduled rally in progress. Stay tuned!
评论:
Wow nuts! Not chasing this. FOMO + short covering, a short-killer.
评论:
IMO we are headed for a no-kidding pension killing life-savings wipeout crash. Could be October.
This frantic rally is typical of price move just before capitulation. Look out below.
This frantic rally is typical of price move just before capitulation. Look out below.
评论:
PPI 12 Oct; CPI 13 Oct 0830 NYT
评论:
Didn't fill gap right away might just drift lower. Tried a few calls got 40 bucks for my trouble; puts were better, lol. Back in cash. Might get a crown formation before crash.
评论:
Well gosh they wanted it all back EOD! So absurd, sell it all in AM, buy it back in PM, lose-lose. Looks like anotehr stupid rally going into CPI to setup for a massive tankoff.
Again. Why does anybody buy into this?! LOL
Again. Why does anybody buy into this?! LOL
