Looking for move lower in US Indices
Funnily enough this rally has been led by the S&P and Dow the Small caps and nasdaq have been lagging the big indices higher (I have pending sell order on them that have not filled yet and they have unfilled price gaps that are likely to be filled before any significant decline
Given this it is not unreasonable to say that the rally has been in only a select few stocks or very narrow breadth as there are plenty of high priced stocks in the Dow (and the Dow is PRICE weighted not cap weighted in only 30 stocks) and the SP500 is cap weighted but we have ridiculous P/E Ratios on some of the big 5 stocks from P/E's well over 80 - 400
I mean seriously..?? does anyone really think
a) Facebook is worth a P/E of 85x ttm earnings - priced at $110 (what do they produce again?)
b) Amazon is worth a P/E of 476x ttm earnings currently priced at $594 (I mean seriously...??)
c) Netflix is worth a P/E of 370x ttm earnings - earnings have doubled but still a P/E at even half of this is excessive - currently priced @ $103
d) Google/ Alphabet - probably the most realistically priced stock from the bunch... at 31x ttm earnings but priced at $739
The majority of these FANG stocks are just highly overpriced speculative trading stocks... the only exception is Google who deserves to be somewhere in the region it is...although it could be susceptable to declines it still has a far more realistic value than the others
This cannot last forever, the fact they are now just in the stratosphere trading at multiple 100's of P/E multiples re pricing is just reaffirming the view that the high stock values relative to earnings are pushing up indices on thin air...
All built up on 'expectations' of high earnings growth... and what happens when they don't deliver??... well... there is only one door and not enough room for everyone to get out at the same price - so it likely won't end well...
Funnily enough this rally has been led by the S&P and Dow the Small caps and nasdaq have been lagging the big indices higher (I have pending sell order on them that have not filled yet and they have unfilled price gaps that are likely to be filled before any significant decline
Given this it is not unreasonable to say that the rally has been in only a select few stocks or very narrow breadth as there are plenty of high priced stocks in the Dow (and the Dow is PRICE weighted not cap weighted in only 30 stocks) and the SP500 is cap weighted but we have ridiculous P/E Ratios on some of the big 5 stocks from P/E's well over 80 - 400
I mean seriously..?? does anyone really think
a) Facebook is worth a P/E of 85x ttm earnings - priced at $110 (what do they produce again?)
b) Amazon is worth a P/E of 476x ttm earnings currently priced at $594 (I mean seriously...??)
c) Netflix is worth a P/E of 370x ttm earnings - earnings have doubled but still a P/E at even half of this is excessive - currently priced @ $103
d) Google/ Alphabet - probably the most realistically priced stock from the bunch... at 31x ttm earnings but priced at $739
The majority of these FANG stocks are just highly overpriced speculative trading stocks... the only exception is Google who deserves to be somewhere in the region it is...although it could be susceptable to declines it still has a far more realistic value than the others
This cannot last forever, the fact they are now just in the stratosphere trading at multiple 100's of P/E multiples re pricing is just reaffirming the view that the high stock values relative to earnings are pushing up indices on thin air...
All built up on 'expectations' of high earnings growth... and what happens when they don't deliver??... well... there is only one door and not enough room for everyone to get out at the same price - so it likely won't end well...
交易结束：到达止损:
Still short on another entry higher but this trade failed
Points raised still valid imo
Points raised still valid imo
