SPX, did we really went through a bottom?
I intentionally use a log scale a reflect on
- the excess liquidity in the market
- the increased volatility due to the mass of retail investors and algo's trading
I might be a merchant of doom, but the fact is that the recession is far from over, it barely started.
1) If we look at the time :
Consumers and companies will only start to see the ripple effects of the pandemic (even if there is no other wave) in the coming months....
around 40% of the layoffs could become permanent (news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/one-third-of-u-s-job-losses-are-at-risk-of-becoming-permanent this is just an example, other experts point into the same direction)
Therefore, how the possible biggest economic shok of our generation bottom out in one month while the previous ones lasted more than a year?
2) If we look at the depth of the March sell-off... just eye-balling this says a lot, it looks like a panic sell off, almost like the ones you see every couple of years ...it doesn't look like a market bottom
4) If you look at the previous crisi, we always retrace more than 61% after the first sell off, it just fells natural that everyone's hope for a quick recovery...
5) if we look at the vix
Att. 1:
SPX, Read an article on MArket Watch (sorry couldn't find back the link) showing that market bottoms happens 153 days on avg after the VIX spike.
From my point of view, either we bottom out in August... or we'll see the VIX higher...
- the excess liquidity in the market
- the increased volatility due to the mass of retail investors and algo's trading
I might be a merchant of doom, but the fact is that the recession is far from over, it barely started.
1) If we look at the time :
Consumers and companies will only start to see the ripple effects of the pandemic (even if there is no other wave) in the coming months....
around 40% of the layoffs could become permanent (news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/one-third-of-u-s-job-losses-are-at-risk-of-becoming-permanent this is just an example, other experts point into the same direction)
Therefore, how the possible biggest economic shok of our generation bottom out in one month while the previous ones lasted more than a year?
2) If we look at the depth of the March sell-off... just eye-balling this says a lot, it looks like a panic sell off, almost like the ones you see every couple of years ...it doesn't look like a market bottom
4) If you look at the previous crisi, we always retrace more than 61% after the first sell off, it just fells natural that everyone's hope for a quick recovery...
5) if we look at the vix
Att. 1:
SPX, Read an article on MArket Watch (sorry couldn't find back the link) showing that market bottoms happens 153 days on avg after the VIX spike.
From my point of view, either we bottom out in August... or we'll see the VIX higher...
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