Per last week's update that a likely cycle high was put in at roughly 2280 SPX. Here is a weekly chart denoting all of the intervals for ICH's/ICL's during this phase of the major market cycle. Note that there has been a tendency to print swing high's (cycle high's on Week 17) H-H. There is a tendency to print swing low's (cycle low's on Weeks 19-20). Projecting forward that implies a major intermediate cycle low will occur around Mar 20, 2017.
More importantly, when the market is in a bullish phase, the cycle's can right translate and that can also be seen in this chart. (i.e. prices tend to stay bid around the ICH's with some drift lower. Sentiment continues to build in lots of call buying and other contrarian type sentiment indicators until a sharp break lower.)
More importantly, when the market is in a bullish phase, the cycle's can right translate and that can also be seen in this chart. (i.e. prices tend to stay bid around the ICH's with some drift lower. Sentiment continues to build in lots of call buying and other contrarian type sentiment indicators until a sharp break lower.)
评论:
Still appears that the time cycle high was set the week of the FOMC meeting. These markets now "cycle" off of binary style events (which makes sense) due to the illiquid vertical nature nowadays. Presidential election on Nov 8 to high's one day prior to FOMC meeting.