US stocks vs the Federal Reserve Funding Rate vs the unemployment rate vs 10yr-2yr treasury yields. When the 10yr vs 2yr yield goes negative it means that a 2yr treasury bond is yielding more interest than a 10yr treasury bond and it is also known as a yield curve inversion. The red vertical lines in the chart are drawn from yield curve inversions which are usually followed by the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, a rise in unemployment and US recessions. We're currently in a yield curve inversion that has gone more negative than the inversions just prior to the Covid panic, the 2008 financial/housing crisis and the 2000 dot-com bust which were all accompanied by record stock market losses.
Maybe this time will be different...
Maybe this time will be different...
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