Wave 5 “UP”date
Rescaling Minor wave 1 to the top on June 30, and the low three days later as Minor wave 2 would put market in or near the end of Minor wave 3 up. Based on models ending in C53, Minor wave 3 could last 6 days, with second model agreement at 9 days, third agreement is back at 2 and 4 days. Least agreement is shared at 11, 13, 21, and 30 days. Today is day 9 and could have been the temporary market top. See analysis below to further play out this scenario. The tops based on quartile movement extensions of Minor wave 1 (light blue lines) have the first quartile of data topping at 123.32%, 178.33% is the median and third quartile of all historical data is at 201.70%. The market hit the median yesterday and is halfway between the median and third quartile levels with a current extension of 191.99% meaning the end of Minor wave 3 could have occurred today or will happen soon.
Based on waves ending in 53, strongest model agreement is at 6 days again, followed by 9 days. Third most agreement is 4 days followed by 3 days and then 11 days. Regarding movement extension levels, the first quartile and median have already been surpassed and the third quartile remains untouched at 201.70%
IF Minor wave 3 ended today, the next movement for the market should be briefly downward. Based on models ending in C54, strongest model agreement would have Minor wave 4 only last one day. Second model agreement is tied at 2 or 3 trading days. A far fourth agreement is 4 days while a further fifth is at 7 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 28.23%, 37.305%, and 52.09%. Based on waves ending in 54, strongest model agreement is on Minor wave 4 lasting 2 trading days with second most agreement at 1 day and third at 3 days. Models significantly drop off afterward with 4 days in fourth and five days in fifth. The quartile retracement levels are 27.27%, 42.40%, and 57.21%.
With day 1 being tomorrow, the market’s next low should occur before week’s end and possibly around 4515-4520. Early indications with Minor wave 1 lasting 4 days, and assuming wave 3 was 9 days, is that the final market top could occur next week. Fed decision is expected Wednesday.
Based on waves ending in 53, strongest model agreement is at 6 days again, followed by 9 days. Third most agreement is 4 days followed by 3 days and then 11 days. Regarding movement extension levels, the first quartile and median have already been surpassed and the third quartile remains untouched at 201.70%
IF Minor wave 3 ended today, the next movement for the market should be briefly downward. Based on models ending in C54, strongest model agreement would have Minor wave 4 only last one day. Second model agreement is tied at 2 or 3 trading days. A far fourth agreement is 4 days while a further fifth is at 7 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 28.23%, 37.305%, and 52.09%. Based on waves ending in 54, strongest model agreement is on Minor wave 4 lasting 2 trading days with second most agreement at 1 day and third at 3 days. Models significantly drop off afterward with 4 days in fourth and five days in fifth. The quartile retracement levels are 27.27%, 42.40%, and 57.21%.
With day 1 being tomorrow, the market’s next low should occur before week’s end and possibly around 4515-4520. Early indications with Minor wave 1 lasting 4 days, and assuming wave 3 was 9 days, is that the final market top could occur next week. Fed decision is expected Wednesday.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
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