hankchef

SP500 Testing support from Dec 2015

FX:SPX500   美国标准普尔500指数
247 2 4
0. Review

Scenario 1 of my previous post is in play now, retest 2111.4 high and retrace, wave a was a little more intense than I thought due to the break of 2092 support.

1. Short-term forecast

We are approaching a support since the swing highs from Dec. 2015, around 2082, also the .382(2082) retrace of the whole wave as shown in the chart.

We can expect a bounce from 2082(aka 2075ES), up to at least the resistance level around 2092.5 to 2094(2094 is also a target given by the MEJT system for tomorrow). If we cannot break 2094, then more retrace as talked about above is expected.

Since this level is a shallow retrace, we may see lower price down to .5(2073.9), .618(2065), .786(2052.4) in the next one or two days if we cannot penetrate 2094.

2. Thoughts on a historic review

If price cannot go up on critical levels, then it's going down.
Take a look at the top formations before, at this point, we should have a candle formation that looks like those we had on the arrows -- a test to lower and pullback by the BTD(buy-the-dip) guys before any big down, which could happen any time in a very brutal way.



评论: Friday was a choppy day, prices traded in a range of 2015/12 support(2082) and Resistance 2094, closed under our resistance area. The possible failure at this level will lead to lower prices to be printed next week.

Today's candle formation looks very similar to previous tops, which followed by avalanches. At this point, either bulls or bears should be nimble and of course trade with stop loss. If it fails, it crashes hard.
Monday's trading plan:
1. First short @ 2086 to 2088 ES, stop loss 2090ES or SP cash 15min candle closed above Resistance Area. TP1 2066 cash. TP2 2036 cash.

2. If first short stopped out, look for a long scalp to 2098.8 to 2113.8 cash, stop loss 2085 or under Resistance Area.

3. Short @ 2110ES, stop loss new high(2116), TP 2088.

If plan 1 fills, there will be no plan 2 and 3.

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Possible paths:
1. drop here from 2094 to lower levels
2. break 2094 and go up to 2100, then down to lower levels
3. break 2094, 2100, go up to 2104.5 or 2111.4, then down to lower levels
4. create new highs and continue rally.

these are all possible scenarios here
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