AndyM

S&P impulsive downtrend begins, targets 1950, 1750

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FX:SPX500   美国标准普尔500指数
I believe the first complete down-looking impulsive subwave is now in place, and we can see its internal structure and properly label the waves using MACD reading. The 3rd waves produce the strongest peaks on MACD and the 5th wave usually lags behind in momentum, delivering a weaker peak. This is then followed by a correction in wave 2 or 4 of a larger degree.

An impulse never happens alone, even if it's just a correctional A wave, there would need to be a B wave up and then a C wave down. However, I believe we are dealing with much more than just a correction - since all upward waves have been completed, we are going to see a larger impulsive decline, with waves 1-3-5 of larger degrees progressively forming.

I estimate that the next wave 5 of 1 larger degree will reach 1950, and another larger degree wave 5 will end at 1750. This will be the first major wave of the decline, followed by a correction to 1950-2000.

The only rule of thumb I use to estimate the length of those larger degree waves is to project a 2.618 extension of wave 1 measured from its top to the breakout of the previous trend. Very often it works well.
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