Stocks have pushed higher, spiking up to our level at 4327. However, we have retraced back to the high 4200 handle. The rally appears to be growing weaker. We have some risk off news including Tencent, the Chinese tech firm reporting negative revenue for the first time in history. We also have retail sales at 8:30AM EST, which another data point the Fed will be looking at. A softer reading will weaken the Fed's case to aggressively hike rates, though the headline is only expected at 0.1%. If we do retrace, then 4272 is a reasonable level to expect support, with 4188 a likely floor. If we break out, then 4350 is the next target.
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UPDATE: Although the headline Retails Sales print was a slight miss, but the numbers were mixed overall. The markets are predicting a 52% chance of a 75 bps rate hike in September, which was in the 40% range before the data.
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