Outrageously fatally complacency

The "S&P 500" bear market seek & destroy short squeeze rally is nearing its end. We are very soon running out of fools buying the top. I see at least a decline back to 2000 points and a fast crash back to 1925 is also in the cards. The momentum of the rally is running out of steam (as shown by the "KST" indicator which measures the rate-of-change). Currently the "S&P 500" is at 2106 points after Draghi's ECB announcement that interest rates in the EU are kept a zero.

Market leaders show increasing risk
Other bearish warning signals: "Apple" is usually a leader of the market and currently the stock is falling since several days. The Chinese stock market index SSE is also dropping since a couple of days. Both of these were so far leading as long as I observe them since Winter 2015.

Short entry: 2100
Stop loss: 2117
1. Target: 2000
2. Target: 1960
3. Target: 1925

评论:

It's FOMC day ahead of the FED decision. The short from 2100 is doing well so far. The S&P 500 also dropped since the KST crossed bearish. Now it's up to the market how low we go after the FED release.

Apple earnings yesterday disappointed with many saying this earnings release marks the peak of the iPhone. WTI oil rallied up to a peak of $45.15 today, but then sharply dropped lower to $43.75. In my view WTI is going to fall lower which would be bearish for oil companies and also drag the S&P 500 lower together with Apple.

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Update 15 days later:

The S&P 500 is following so far exactly my forecast. Moving along the bearish downtrend arrow I had drawn. Question is if the downtrend reverses next week with a dead cat bounce (as I had predicted on my chart above and also in my original idea a month ago www.tradingview.com/...f-April-Fed-meeting/),


or if the downtrend accelerates in the next weeks - which is my older idea from 23 days ago, which you can find here:

评论:

Ok, the potential bounce I drew in 19 days ago just happened after all. I wasn't sure enough yesterday (Monday) with the start of the bounce appearing so weak. But today the bounce made up for the weakness of yesterday and fully confirmed that the overall chart trend projection from 19 days ago is still valid:

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I released a new bearish chart yesterday now that the S&P 500 is approaching the second sell wave this week:

Meanwhile I came across several interesting news articles:


Goldman Sachs loses faith in stocks, downgrades global equities to neutral from overweight over a 12-month horizon
www.marketwatch.com/...up-to-oil-2016-05-18
finance.yahoo.com/ne...utral-104535736.html


Milton Berg: We're at the Cusp of a 30-Year Bear Market
www.bloomberg.com/ne...-30-year-bear-market