When Continuing Claims for Unemployment Bottoms, S&P500 Rallies

The market is always worrying about various data series and the impact on the stock market. Today, this one was inspired by a Tweet by someone I follow on Twitter that I respect.

The point of this chart is to show you the batting average of "What Happens When The Unemployment Claims Bottoms Out"? Technically, we don't know this is the bottom yet, but you can see here that if the forecast is for the next 6 months (a useful time horizon) then the odds of an up market are not just 50% but up to 75% chance.

See for yourself and note that the market is more than just one statistic, particularly the Unemployment Claims. The market can be impacted by many variables, but certainly people working and not sitting around collecting insurance, would be a good sign for the economy overall.

Either way - my lesson for today is "Don't just take what anyone says for granted." Go research it for yourself here at Tradingview.com

Cheers,

Tim West

May 11, 2017 10:52AM EST

评论:

If I add a bit more detail to the chart, I get a sampling of what happened each time before. The indicator is about as random as you can get, which is about what I thought when I first saw the indicator.

2:27PM EST 5/11/2017

评论:

And what is it with April-May-June and Oct-Nov-Dec. All of the bottoms happened in those quarters.

评论:

The fear-mongers used this chart to spread fear all through the year, but you can see it hasn't panned out yet.

2:12PM EST, October 17, 2017