Prepare for the Recession

The business cycle has become a simple fact of economic life. This is so for two reasons: 1) human psychology and 2) central bank interference in the global economy. The Federal Reserve's and European Central Bank's responses to the 2008 financial crisis created asset bubbles in the West, and failed to resolve the solvency problems of the European Union. Meanwhile, China's central planners created an artificial oversupply of housing that has contributed to a decline in housing prices. This will surely create problems for the Chinese economy at large. Oil prices are in the first stage of a decline due to oversupply, the largest in nearly a century. A decline in oil prices and an asset bubble in mortgage derivatives precipitated the 2008 decline of the global economy. Based on my analysis, the time has come for another correction.