2020 Medium Term Global Markets Overview
已更新
Hi, I have tried to compile the highlights of my new year as a basis for my future trade and ideas.
I would gladly present it to everyone.
General Markets
In general, the S&P 500 index is in a good rally.
This rally shows that we are currently globally optimistic.
Brent and Crude Oil also seem to have had their share of this rally.
Moreover, the movements of US 10-year Bond Yield, EURUSD and Dollar index are also supporting this movement.
The Japanese Yen is more stable and relatively downward, but positions are unraveling.
These disintegrations may be a clue that a positive trend will be established.
We already know that Gold and Japanese Yen movements are highly correlated on the weekly chart.
Which may support our Gold argument.
The VIX index foreshadows less volatility, but as the index value decreases, the positions also dissolve.
This disintegration is not so much now, but as the disintegration increases, the trend return will be a big sign.
However, we see that Gold, Silver and Iron Ore do not participate in these movements and are quite discounted.
Natural Gas is a less liquid instrument, but there seems to be a significant discount, but the positions have not been sufficiently solved.
Should be followed closely.
Here, Gold, Silver, Iron Ore and Natural Gas in mind, we go down more specifical layers.
Stock Markets
If we look at U.S Dollar based changes of various stock exchanges in the same period, we see that most countries' stock markets benefited from the rise of the S&P 500 Index.
We observe that Australia, Canada, Turkey, China, Singapore,Japan stock exchanges are discounted.
India, Norway, Switzerland, Spain and the Netherlands stock exchanges can also be considered relatively cheap.
In addition, we observe that New Zealand, Denmark, Russia, Sweden, South Africa Stock Exchanges benefited more than the rally.
Forex and Future Markets
When we look at the futures, we can see that the Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar are discounted compared to other currencies and the increase in their positions is maintained.
The euro wants more serious increases in positions.
When we look at agricultural and metal Futures, COT positions seem to support the increase.
But the cheap ones are among them.Especially Platinum is quite cheap.
G10 Developed Countries
When we look at the currencies and interest rate changes in developed countries, we have nothing to say before.
But there is no anomaly between interest and currencies.
Here, the Norwegian crown is relatively discounted.
The British Pound and the New Zealand Dollar have benefited strongly from the rally.
MSCI Emerging Countries
When we look at developing countries, interest yields did not increase at a time when the Turkish Lira experienced a big loss.
An abnormal situation is observed here.
This makes the Turkish Lira even more fragile.
India is not yet at such risky levels, but it is worth being careful.
Taiwan, Indonesia and Chinese currencies are observed to be cheap.
U.S Important Indices
When we look at the important US indices, it is observed that these indices perform below S&P:
Cryptocurrency Market
When we look at the cryptocurrency market, we observe that Tezos is the rising star.
In root Cryptocurrencies, the blockchain data of bitcoin's blockchain shows us that it can move upwards.
But this data needs to be a little more powerful.
More discounted crypto instruments than Bitcoin:
Litecoin , Ethereum , Stellar , BinanceCoin , EOS , Bitcoin Cash and Ripple .
However, since these instruments are more fragile, a buy signal should be expected.
And if Bitcoin will be on Bull market with the strong Blockchain data, these instruments can be expected to rise further than Bitcoin.
But it should be remembered that in case of outside capital or hot money inflow, the first rise will come from the Bitcoin wing.
I wish everyone a happy new year,best regards.
I would gladly present it to everyone.
General Markets
In general, the S&P 500 index is in a good rally.
This rally shows that we are currently globally optimistic.
Brent and Crude Oil also seem to have had their share of this rally.
Moreover, the movements of US 10-year Bond Yield, EURUSD and Dollar index are also supporting this movement.
The Japanese Yen is more stable and relatively downward, but positions are unraveling.
These disintegrations may be a clue that a positive trend will be established.
We already know that Gold and Japanese Yen movements are highly correlated on the weekly chart.
Which may support our Gold argument.
The VIX index foreshadows less volatility, but as the index value decreases, the positions also dissolve.
This disintegration is not so much now, but as the disintegration increases, the trend return will be a big sign.
However, we see that Gold, Silver and Iron Ore do not participate in these movements and are quite discounted.
Natural Gas is a less liquid instrument, but there seems to be a significant discount, but the positions have not been sufficiently solved.
Should be followed closely.
Here, Gold, Silver, Iron Ore and Natural Gas in mind, we go down more specifical layers.
Stock Markets
If we look at U.S Dollar based changes of various stock exchanges in the same period, we see that most countries' stock markets benefited from the rise of the S&P 500 Index.
We observe that Australia, Canada, Turkey, China, Singapore,Japan stock exchanges are discounted.
India, Norway, Switzerland, Spain and the Netherlands stock exchanges can also be considered relatively cheap.
In addition, we observe that New Zealand, Denmark, Russia, Sweden, South Africa Stock Exchanges benefited more than the rally.
Forex and Future Markets
When we look at the futures, we can see that the Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar are discounted compared to other currencies and the increase in their positions is maintained.
The euro wants more serious increases in positions.
When we look at agricultural and metal Futures, COT positions seem to support the increase.
But the cheap ones are among them.Especially Platinum is quite cheap.
G10 Developed Countries
When we look at the currencies and interest rate changes in developed countries, we have nothing to say before.
But there is no anomaly between interest and currencies.
Here, the Norwegian crown is relatively discounted.
The British Pound and the New Zealand Dollar have benefited strongly from the rally.
MSCI Emerging Countries
When we look at developing countries, interest yields did not increase at a time when the Turkish Lira experienced a big loss.
An abnormal situation is observed here.
This makes the Turkish Lira even more fragile.
India is not yet at such risky levels, but it is worth being careful.
Taiwan, Indonesia and Chinese currencies are observed to be cheap.
U.S Important Indices
When we look at the important US indices, it is observed that these indices perform below S&P:
- DJI : Dow Jones Industrial Average
- NYA : NYSE Composite Index
- HGX : PHLX Housing Sector Index
- UTY : PHLX Utility Sector Index
- XNG : NYSE ARCA Natural Gas
- SPGSCI : S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
- SPSIOP : S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Select Index
- GDM : NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index
- DFI : NYSE Arca Defense Index
- NWX : NYSE Arca Networking Index
- XOI : AMEX Oil Index
- NQNACE : Nasdaq Yewno North America Cannabis Economy Index
NOTE : This index is not very well settled, but it is possible to look at the liquid stocks in the field.
Cryptocurrency Market
When we look at the cryptocurrency market, we observe that Tezos is the rising star.
In root Cryptocurrencies, the blockchain data of bitcoin's blockchain shows us that it can move upwards.
But this data needs to be a little more powerful.
More discounted crypto instruments than Bitcoin:
Litecoin , Ethereum , Stellar , BinanceCoin , EOS , Bitcoin Cash and Ripple .
However, since these instruments are more fragile, a buy signal should be expected.
And if Bitcoin will be on Bull market with the strong Blockchain data, these instruments can be expected to rise further than Bitcoin.
But it should be remembered that in case of outside capital or hot money inflow, the first rise will come from the Bitcoin wing.
I wish everyone a happy new year,best regards.
注释
Here is U.S Important Indices Screen which i forgot to share : 
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