$SPY update: Idea hasn't changed, only the timing. $480 next.
Update:
Largely the same idea, just the timing changed.
I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls.
Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480.
The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area.
While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks.
Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
Largely the same idea, just the timing changed.
I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls.
Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480.
The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area.
While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks.
Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
评论:
Unlikely that we see the upper resistance (at least for now). After today's price action, I'm leaning to the downside here.
评论:
Okay, 50/50 as of today. If we do hit the resistance level tomorrow, I'll probably add to my put position.
评论:
Not sure if we'll get all the way up to $552. Could see it double topping here. Might want to start scaling into puts...
September puts are safest.
September puts are safest.
