9-29: A look at the four previous pullbacks over the past year shows that they all look quite the same and follow similar paths. Eventually that will end. Knowing when/if the current pull back deviates from the previous trends may give a clue as to whether some thing different is coming.
- All four completed pullbacks bottomed at or near the 50% retrace of the previous rally. Current pullback touched near 50% at 196.30.
- A break in each pullbacks down-trending channel has represented the end of the pullback. With 3 of last 4 breaks coming at the opening of a trading day
- Break of down trend has given an avg 3-day return of 2% but with some obvious slowing with each pullback. From earliest to latest: 3.2%, 2.5%, 1.5%, .83%.
- Avg gain from previous ATH to start of new pullback has been 3.6%, with the most recent gain of 1.41% being the smallest in the past year.
- Lowest daily RSI reading on average during pullback has been 33.4. Last thursday was 39.95.
Its quite possible the low is already in having completed the 50% retrace on Thu with a retest of the low occurring Mon-Wed. However, if the Thu low does not hold, next levels to watch are 194.82 then 193.21.
- All four completed pullbacks bottomed at or near the 50% retrace of the previous rally. Current pullback touched near 50% at 196.30.
- A break in each pullbacks down-trending channel has represented the end of the pullback. With 3 of last 4 breaks coming at the opening of a trading day
- Break of down trend has given an avg 3-day return of 2% but with some obvious slowing with each pullback. From earliest to latest: 3.2%, 2.5%, 1.5%, .83%.
- Avg gain from previous ATH to start of new pullback has been 3.6%, with the most recent gain of 1.41% being the smallest in the past year.
- Lowest daily RSI reading on average during pullback has been 33.4. Last thursday was 39.95.
Its quite possible the low is already in having completed the 50% retrace on Thu with a retest of the low occurring Mon-Wed. However, if the Thu low does not hold, next levels to watch are 194.82 then 193.21.
