So after much elation and what seemed like bottle popping all day we got a pretty serious rejection the last hour of the day after trading in an incredibly tight range the majority of it.
We opened up, and immediately got rejected from resistance at $302. But we meandered just below it all day as it looked like we were going to be consolidating for another move higher later in the week. This thesis would still be true if we didn't see the hourly reversal starting at about 3:30 EST. There was a huge amount of volume that popped in with about 1.5m shares traded at 3:34. The only thing i can think of is algos got popped by headlines that China sanctions are on the way. I don't have to explain to anyone here how important it was for the bulls to hold the line at $300. That's the 200 period daily SMA, and also a huge psychological level for various reasons. But that last hour they gave it up. Couple things: could just have been a shakeout/stop hunt and we recover those late day losses overnight to either open back where we started (EU PPT) or this is a legitimate rejection and we're headed back to $294 to retest the breakout area. Either way this washing machine of a market is still undecided on which way it wants to head clearly.
Facts on the day: we technically did not close that gap at $302.46. We did gap up over the 200 period SMA but were ultimately rejected with high volume. Technical reversal on the intraday charts.
1 min chart showing 3:34 and the huge sell volume
5 min showing the clear rejection off of $302
1h showing the reversal on an intraday. We found hourly support on the 13 period EMA and we still haven't retraced 50% yet so technically that's still bullish.
ES regaining historical trend but failing to close over 200 period SMA
SPX showing what looks like a rejection from the gap and closing below SMA
IWM had regained trend all day and ended up closing below the trend line from the lows. Still a huge day for the small caps
XLF having a huge day as well but still failing to break out/close above it's range
Reversal on the hourly
NDX showing a divergence with decent selling all day. Clear rejection from the bottom of gap at 9852.50. This could be people still cycling out of havens (tech stocks) into value/cyclicals. OR the mega caps could be leading to the downside. With IWM, and XLF up bigly, and NDX down meh i'm going to go with the bullish thesis on this one.
DJI printing a clear breakout but still with a ways to go before we even get to even get to the 100 period SMA.
Another bullish caveat is transports. They crushed it today with a clear breakout and 5% gain. I like to use DJT and small caps as a leading indicators.
Double bottom on VIX? we'll see. This may be the glimmer of hope in the bear case.
Silver consolidating and holding gains while gold wants to verify the risk on rally. Bonds, just doing.. whatever they're doing. I'm not fully sold on this rally until we get bonds participating on the downsides and yields go a touch higer.
If we do hold above $294 i still think $304 is going to be important, as well as the breakdown candle high at $312. If we do print a legitimate reversal/rejection expect $294 support followed by the bottom of the gap at $286. As always we're in a news driven cycle and any piece of news that comes out the market can pin a rally of sell off to. Let me know what you think.
Keep your head on a swivel and happy trading. Btw i hope these help. I generally do this because i like to. Let me know if you have any feedback on anything i'm getting wrong/incorrect in your eyes or just have feedback in general.
Thanks for reading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based off of my own personal TA.
We opened up, and immediately got rejected from resistance at $302. But we meandered just below it all day as it looked like we were going to be consolidating for another move higher later in the week. This thesis would still be true if we didn't see the hourly reversal starting at about 3:30 EST. There was a huge amount of volume that popped in with about 1.5m shares traded at 3:34. The only thing i can think of is algos got popped by headlines that China sanctions are on the way. I don't have to explain to anyone here how important it was for the bulls to hold the line at $300. That's the 200 period daily SMA, and also a huge psychological level for various reasons. But that last hour they gave it up. Couple things: could just have been a shakeout/stop hunt and we recover those late day losses overnight to either open back where we started (EU PPT) or this is a legitimate rejection and we're headed back to $294 to retest the breakout area. Either way this washing machine of a market is still undecided on which way it wants to head clearly.
Facts on the day: we technically did not close that gap at $302.46. We did gap up over the 200 period SMA but were ultimately rejected with high volume. Technical reversal on the intraday charts.
1 min chart showing 3:34 and the huge sell volume
5 min showing the clear rejection off of $302
1h showing the reversal on an intraday. We found hourly support on the 13 period EMA and we still haven't retraced 50% yet so technically that's still bullish.
ES regaining historical trend but failing to close over 200 period SMA
SPX showing what looks like a rejection from the gap and closing below SMA
IWM had regained trend all day and ended up closing below the trend line from the lows. Still a huge day for the small caps
XLF having a huge day as well but still failing to break out/close above it's range
NDX showing a divergence with decent selling all day. Clear rejection from the bottom of gap at 9852.50. This could be people still cycling out of havens (tech stocks) into value/cyclicals. OR the mega caps could be leading to the downside. With IWM, and XLF up bigly, and NDX down meh i'm going to go with the bullish thesis on this one.
DJI printing a clear breakout but still with a ways to go before we even get to even get to the 100 period SMA.
Another bullish caveat is transports. They crushed it today with a clear breakout and 5% gain. I like to use DJT and small caps as a leading indicators.
Double bottom on VIX? we'll see. This may be the glimmer of hope in the bear case.
Silver consolidating and holding gains while gold wants to verify the risk on rally. Bonds, just doing.. whatever they're doing. I'm not fully sold on this rally until we get bonds participating on the downsides and yields go a touch higer.
If we do hold above $294 i still think $304 is going to be important, as well as the breakdown candle high at $312. If we do print a legitimate reversal/rejection expect $294 support followed by the bottom of the gap at $286. As always we're in a news driven cycle and any piece of news that comes out the market can pin a rally of sell off to. Let me know what you think.
Keep your head on a swivel and happy trading. Btw i hope these help. I generally do this because i like to. Let me know if you have any feedback on anything i'm getting wrong/incorrect in your eyes or just have feedback in general.
Thanks for reading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based off of my own personal TA.
