BEI

ARE WE THERE YET?

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BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
3
I SAW SO MANY TOP CALLING CHARTS SINCE A COUPLE A MONTHS. PEOPLE GOT BURNED AND FRUSTRATED DURING THIS PERIOD WHERE FINALLY PRICES WENT STRAIGHT UP, BREAKING RESISTANCE AFTER RESISTANCE TO ATH WITHOUT ANY NORMAL TECHNICAL PULLBACKS TO GIVE SOME OF THE TECHIES SOMETHING TO CHEW ON (I WAS PART OF THEM). BUT FINALLY, I THINK THIS MIGHT BE IT, AT LEAST THE CHARTS TELLS US THIS IS A POTENTIAL TOP FORMATION, ABILITY TO HOLD BELOW 167-170 WILL CONFIRM IF THE TREND IS REVERSING.

NEVERTHELESS, NEXT QUESTION IS: IN WHAT WAVE ARE WE #3 OR #5? TECHNICALLY SPEAKING, FROM MY POINT OF VIEW THE LAST WAVE HAS HAD A PHENOMENAL EXTENDED RUN SINCE MIDDLE 2011. THIS IS TWO YEARS UPTREND IN A 4 YEARS BULL MARKET. WELL I NOTICED OVER TIME LAST WAVE IS THE MOST EXTENDED ONE. FOR THIS REASON I THINK WE SHOULD SEE 142-143 FIRST, THEN 127-128 FOR THE LEAST. AFTER WHAT I WILL REEVALUATE THE POTENTIAL TURNING POINT FOR A NEW LON TERM UPTREND.

THOSE ARE TWO FIBONACCI LEVELS MEETING TRENDLINES, SIMPLE AS IT GETS. THIS ANALYSIS HOLDS AS LONG AS PRICES DON'T BREAK PREVIOUS HIGH.
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