SPY: Week of April 15

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Last week I just did a longer timeframe update.
I am going to continue with the larger timeframe as the focus but will also give the shorter timeframe levels for next week.

You can see we've just chilled below the 3 month threshold for far too long. It's 504 on the horizon, that's for sure.

We will likely snag a bit lower, because I didn't realize there was this giant daily gap on SPY that stems down to 497 (its the purple box in the chart).

A gap fill doesn't require us to hit PL2 on the 3 month, but it does require us to hit PL1 on the 3 month, (504).

Some pretty bearish readings registered for next week, and likely going to kick off right off the bat into Monday based on the daily outlook assessment.

The weekly levels to watch are here:

Would be nice to just get to the point, get into that gap zone and then we head back to 532.
We'll see how eager it is to just get it done.

The selling is pretty controlled with too many eager and early bulls. This makes for PA that is dreadfully terrible with its slow pace and choppy grind down.
If we manage a gap fill it will just be back to straight up.

For next week, look for 504 and below.
Long zone is between 497 - 503.90.
If we can get some selling catalysts we can probably increase the velocity and just get it done early next week and reverse into mid to end of week.

Remember, probability is indicating a particularly bearish start to the week on Monday so just be careful you permabulls ;).

Those are my thoughts!
Safe trades!

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And that's a wrap folks.
That's a F**KIN' wrap.

:-D very pleased.

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Expectations for tomorrow are bullish based on probability.

Tech is a bit more range bound. The expectation for tech is a bit of a gap down and a narrow range tomorrow than SPY.
This may mean that SPY gaps down, maybe towards gap support.
It doesn't look like we will fill the bearish gap this week because we are likely going to retrace 517 by EOW.
Perhaps they save the bearish gap for FOMC.
But 532 is also on the horizon, so lots going on and lots to keep track of.
All in all, best guess is a bit of a gap down/premarket sell followed by a bounce.
By EOW we should rally back up to 517.

These are just my thoughts, safe trades!

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Yikes, bad day, but good and not totally unexpected with this gap fill that needed to happen.
But it was just bloody everywhere, so that's not good.

Didn't quite complete the gap fill, though we did break 500 which is great!
I do suspect we either gap down to complete the gap fill or we will see it continue to sell intra-day.

Because of the vast move today, probaiblity is all over the place, the computer has no clue. Some things throwing hugely bearish readings, some things throwing hugely bullish. Just from the chart, I am still looking for this gap fill to complete and then bounce/circle back.

517 seems like its going to miss this week, which is fine. I am happy to see this pullback and bearishness, its been long overdue!

On the gap fill I think longing isn't the worst idea, at least for a bounce. If it is going to continue down sub the gap, that would be a lot of bearishness. If we break sub 476, I would say we are re-entering bearish market territory as this would be falling outside of the 3 month range which doesn't happen in bull markets.
Bull markets we tend to stay in the green range or exceed.
Bear markets, we stay in the bear range and exceed below:

Bear market:

Bull Market:

So as of now I will consider this simply pullback / correction.
TBD if that is actually the case or not.

Safe trades!

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SO no gap down, but we saw it continue to sell intra-day which was scenario #2.
Its very controlled selling, maybe beacuse people are still buying, maybe they just want to let it down easily and provide exits.
But either way, we didn't fully close the gap.
Going into tomorrow, more downside. Until this gap is close I really don't forsee this bouncing or not selling because we are so close.

We are due for a bounce around these levels. Probability kind of agrees.
Looking for this to ideally just close the damn gap and then bounce from there.

Let's see!

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No bounce city, yeah!
Love it,
480s incoming :O

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Lots of questions I see and panic.
I will post an updated idea either tonight or early tomorrow (heading out camping for the first time of the season! yay!).

I need to run the projections and assessments.
Yesterday I ran time series to determine the quadratic mean (if you have followed me for a while you will know this already, for those of you new, I will explain in my new idea) and that is around 480.

So that is where the rando 480 target came that I posted earlier. Its a regression to the mean.

Will elaborate more once I have more data collected and run the projections and assessments for next week.

Until then, take care everyone, hope you had a kick ass week! Was great for me, a really good week, lots of profit but more so because I am a permabear and happiest when I can short. So financially and emotionally rewarding week is always great! haha

Safe trades and catch you later!

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SPY has reclaimed the bearish condition for the 3 month levels.
Today SPY retraced up to 520, inching ever so slightly towards its 532 target.

It is slowly making progress. Slow and steady.
SPY has resumed a normal growth trajectory at this point. We are not seeing overzealousness in either direction.
It will be a slow and steady move towards the target.

In the short term, SPY is looking bearish into tomorrow (May 10th). So expect some pullback, depending on where we open depends on where we land for pullback.

In terms of everyone being bearish on this, I don't understand the rationale for the bearishness. When has this been bearish this year? Lol, wackos.

Anyway those are my thoughts!

Safe trades!