CheersOrTears

Fed announcement, from cheers to tears

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AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
We got the announcement Wednesday that many saw coming and then some. No rate hike was expected but the market did not anticipate no rates hikes for the remaining year. Bulls pounced on it Thursday as positive news for the market, but those who listened closely heard a different story. The slowdown of global growth could no longer be ignored and a deceleration of monetary policy was necessary incase things get worse later on in the year. This was validated with poor manufacturing data from Germany, shipping titan Fedex reported poor earnings a bad omen for market health, and an inversion on the U.S. treasury yield curve added to selling pressure capitulating today. If you look at the daily chart on the left we closed Thursday at the overbought mark on the RSI. We have a false breakout with huge rejection today closing below 280. Daily MACD rejecting convergence. Selling at the gap down open Friday was relentless on a day of global sell-off. The defining moment happened as the 281.20 pivot denied bulls in the last two hours of trading, sending SPY closing into session lows. If we open Monday above that 281.20 pivot another move up might unfold however a gap down will likely lead to another day or week of selling back towards 275. Another range consolidation looks likely before we see a significant move in either direction. A break of 272 would indicate a larger move down.
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