SPY Macro Wave Outlook – Bullish Fifth Wave into AI Supercy

7月20日

📈 SPY Macro Wave Outlook – Bullish Fifth Wave into AI Supercycle?
🧠 WaverVanir DSS | VolanX Protocol | Institutional AI Alignment

The SPY rally appears to be unfolding within a 5-wave macro impulse, currently inside Wave (5) targeting the 670–787 zone, depending on macro alignment and Fed behavior. This structure converges with long-term Fibonacci clusters and macro transition signals.

🔍 Thesis:
Wave (5) in Progress – Next resistance seen at ~670.33, followed by long-term targets near 787.19.

Pullback Scenario – A temporary correction into the 597–600 range is possible before further upside.

Structure Validity – Channel and Fibonacci extensions confirm bullish continuation unless macro conditions deteriorate sharply.

🧠 Macro Alignment Required:
Fed Pivot Late 2025 → Probability: 60%

Earnings Growth Led by AI → 11% projected for S&P500 (GS)

Productivity > Consumption → AI-led industries showing 5%+ labor productivity growth (Dallas Fed)

Low Inflation Reacceleration Risk → Core PCE stabilization key

⚠️ Risk Matrix:
Macro Risk Probability Notes
Fed Hawkish Reversal 30% Data-dependent but unlikely unless inflation re-flares
AI Concentration Shock 25% Tech-heavy rally, breadth remains a concern
Valuation Compression 20% Shiller CAPE near 37
Trade War Reignition 15% Tariff risk remains a geopolitical tail

🎯 Target Zones:
Near-term: 670.33 (Wave 5 peak)

Medium-term: 714–787 (Fib clusters)

Correction Zone: 597–600, invalidation below 525

The AI economy is accelerating—productivity is now outpacing consumption in several sectors. This macro regime shift could be the foundation for the next secular bull wave.

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⚠️ Not financial advice. Educational chart generated by institutional DSS models.

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7月20日

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