Long Sugar - just finished 5 wave bear?

On the daily chart I think sugar is coming off a 5 wave bear and starting a new trend. I'm watching the 1hr and 3hr timeframes and tomorrow will check for confirmation on upward swing in momentum. If it's there, I'm going long.

评论:

I have overlaid fib retracements and amazed at the symmetry on the last long wave down. The long wave down was hitting a lot of the cyan fib ratios!

The previous long wave up (orange wave) has fib levels that provided centres of gravity on the long wave down.

So I'm using these fib scales to estimate targets on the wave back up.

Looking at the weekly chart is there is a risk the 5 wave down has not yet completed. There could still be more waves down. However, stochastics look like they will cross over.

With proper risk management like putting in stops, you can limit losses. The risk return payoff is more than 3 if this view is correct.

交易开始:

At the time I made this post on 24th , the CFD I was trading (not this one) was at 1135. I placed an order at 1125 which was fulfilled overnight AEST.

I'm now nicely in the black with recent days being consistently up. I plan to exit at 1229.

交易结束：到达止损:

I got stopped by a 1hr bounce down which bounced up the next hour. Apparently I need to factor in "spread" into allocating a stop level (>.<)

I need to find a way back on the bus after getting off at the wrong stop.

On my side is the potential that I called the end to the bear too early. Once the weekly stochastic crosses over to confirm momentum back up, and the chart moves towards the MA line, that is a good opportunity to hop back on board.

评论:

评论:

Revisiting the daily chart, I have called the bottom of the 5 wave too early. So basically it's looking out for stochastics to cross in the oversold area to find the bottom.

The 3rd August and 24th provide possible turnaround dates for a trend back upwards.

The weekly chart looks like it is bottoming out and the stochastics will cross into oversold over the next few weeks.