TBF Weekly 25-50 MACD with a 10 WK MA

2013年6月9日

We have ended (as of Dec of last year when the Fed announced QE3, and rates went up from there), a 30+ yr bull market in bonds which began in Volcker's reign, when friends of mine were able to buy MA municipals at a 14% yield. Who knows what affect this will have on stocks? My guess is negative because this entire recent recovery in the market is based on a bottoming and beginning of a recovery in REstate prices. And those prices reflect the Cost of Money, not the cost of the property itself. If the 10-yr goes back to where it has historically traded, without QE, Fed intervention to articifically lower rates, etc., it should trade at 2-2.25%+ a risk premium, equal to the current rate of inflation (approximately 1.8-2%), or 3.8%-4.25%-in that environment the 30 yr and 15 yr, on which most mortgages are based, will trade 2-300 basis points higher than currently-i.e., at DOUBLE their current yields. What happens to a housing recovery when the cost of financing the purchase DOUBLES?