3000 to hold else we are going more down, target 3400-3700

📝 Recent Performance
Q1 FY26

Net profit: ₹12,760 crore (↑6% YoY) .

Revenue: ₹63,437 crore (↓2.2% YoY), third consecutive quarterly decline .

Margins remained solid (~24%) .

Stock Momentum

Broke below key technical support post-Q1; could drop another ~5% .

2025 is the worst-performing sector—IT stocks down ~14%, TCS down ~21% YTD .

🌍 Key Headwinds
Global macro slowdown (geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. tariffs) dampening IT spending .

New bench policy causing employee anxiety — could affect productivity .

Client spending delays in North America, weak sectors like auto/manufacturing seen at other peers .

💡 Catalysts to Watch
Deal pipeline strength: Q1 bookings strong in BFSI & Americas — new deals worth ~$8.3 B .

AI and growth segments: TCS reported AI-infused and cloud pipelines now at ~$1.5 B .

Technical rebound: Stock approaching support/resistance zones between ₹3,150–₹3,600 .

🚀 Outlook: Will TCS Go Up?
Scenario Probability Price Outlook
Base Case 🌤 Moderate ₹3,100–₹3,600: range-bound until spending improves
Bullish Case 📈 Conditional ₹3,700+ if major IT deals (AI/cloud) accelerate
Bearish Case 📉 Possible ₹2,900–₹3,050 if global tech slowdown worsens

✅ Summary
Reason for caution: Slowing revenues, sector weakness, macro uncertainties.

Reasons for optimism: Consistent profitability, strong AI/cloud pipeline, and positive deal wins.

If global IT spending recovers (driven by AI/cloud), TCS could rebound toward ₹3,700+. Until then, it may trade in the ₹3,100–₹3,600 range.