If the triangle plays out and TLT swings lower, the red area is where I will be looking the first signs of support. We have 200 mA, a support line and a fib level in this area. A break above 141.72 would invalidate the triangle count.
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Possible swing change here with Heiken bars changing color. However the break below the support and MA has me skeptical.
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We've seen some strong, green Heiken Ashi bars upwards. The last few had no bottom shadows indicating a strong up trend. However, the bars are getting smaller as it tests the resistance line. And we're still hovering about a 200 mA with RSI on the overbought side. I'm not discounting a continuation of the down trend. But I did take a small, long TLT position this week - I'm not making a trade suggestion for anyone.
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The break below the previous low discounts a 1st wave up, according to Elliott's rules. It will be interesting to see what happens next, but I am considering a double zig-zag correction or possibly a leading diagonal down. The later case suggests a reversal in trend. I am maintaining my long position for now and perhaps will get out on a bounce up. I am not making any trade recommendations.