Since last SPY all time high (weekly close, on 5/18/2015 at $212.99), SPY is still down 1.29%, and same period TLT gained 7.85%. Even during strong rally between Feb and today, TLT just dropped a little bit.
With the Fed beating the rate hike drum hard, common sense is that TLT should be sold off from now on given the expectation of higher rate. It will be a surprise (and will tell us something) if TLT continues to hold up from current level.
So far SPY appears to be cheering the perspective of a near future rate hike, or the rally since Feb might just be a countertrend short-squeezed oversold rally.
To put new money into SPY with the backdrop of next Fed rate hike, I must see SPY to make a fresh all time high, and TLT to be sold off. Otherwise I will just keep watching.
With the Fed beating the rate hike drum hard, common sense is that TLT should be sold off from now on given the expectation of higher rate. It will be a surprise (and will tell us something) if TLT continues to hold up from current level.
So far SPY appears to be cheering the perspective of a near future rate hike, or the rally since Feb might just be a countertrend short-squeezed oversold rally.
To put new money into SPY with the backdrop of next Fed rate hike, I must see SPY to make a fresh all time high, and TLT to be sold off. Otherwise I will just keep watching.