Flash Crash Incoming? Can Crypto TMC double within March?
Here I'm extrapolating what I'm seeing happening in the BTC chart, extended to the weekly chart for Crypto Total Market Cap (TMC).
We're seeing two proximate waves: January and February. This follows a longer ascent from a breakout 19 October and a close 26 October above the previous resistance line at $375B, tested 10 August and 17 August.
If we use the Fibonacci extension tool from the wick of 26 October to the base of the January retracement, we get at the 1.272 level the TMC for 15 February, the peak before the current retracement.
When waves are proximate, the base of the next wave will usually settle on the 0.618 of the previous wave's retracement.
In this instance, this puts that value at the $1T mark, and one would expect the next wave (February) to touch that value.
Drawing the Fibonacci retracement from the peak of the current February wave to this projected base on the 0.618 of the previous wave (January), suggests — again using the Fibonacci extension tool and noting where the 1.272 level lands - that the next TMC target is $2T.
This suggests - astonishingly - that the Crypto TMC should, in the next two to three weeks, experience a flash crash and a tremendous rebound.
The breakout from January's retracement was in Week 4.
The current retracement, for BTC at the lower level, seems longer and more protracted to my eye. But still. How long can it really last? Can we say the breakout, this time, will be Week 5, Week 6?
It still puts the timeframe within March.
But to get there, we would have to hit $1T first, for the structure and Fibonacci sequence to be respected.
Are we going to see a flash crash this week - or a slower, two-week drop - from $1.6T to $1T?
Will we see an epic rebound to $2T within March?
We're seeing two proximate waves: January and February. This follows a longer ascent from a breakout 19 October and a close 26 October above the previous resistance line at $375B, tested 10 August and 17 August.
If we use the Fibonacci extension tool from the wick of 26 October to the base of the January retracement, we get at the 1.272 level the TMC for 15 February, the peak before the current retracement.
When waves are proximate, the base of the next wave will usually settle on the 0.618 of the previous wave's retracement.
In this instance, this puts that value at the $1T mark, and one would expect the next wave (February) to touch that value.
Drawing the Fibonacci retracement from the peak of the current February wave to this projected base on the 0.618 of the previous wave (January), suggests — again using the Fibonacci extension tool and noting where the 1.272 level lands - that the next TMC target is $2T.
This suggests - astonishingly - that the Crypto TMC should, in the next two to three weeks, experience a flash crash and a tremendous rebound.
The breakout from January's retracement was in Week 4.
The current retracement, for BTC at the lower level, seems longer and more protracted to my eye. But still. How long can it really last? Can we say the breakout, this time, will be Week 5, Week 6?
It still puts the timeframe within March.
But to get there, we would have to hit $1T first, for the structure and Fibonacci sequence to be respected.
Are we going to see a flash crash this week - or a slower, two-week drop - from $1.6T to $1T?
Will we see an epic rebound to $2T within March?
评论:
Just to add: For this to play out, in my view, we *must* retest $1.6T first. So on the BTC chart I see an ascent to $54k, which is rejected to the downside, bottoming at $37k. I cannot project the timeline, but it seems probable to me that this happens within this present week.
评论:
Link to supporting analysis:
评论:
09 Mar 2021 14:27:04: From current price action, I'll be revising the projection here. Previously I was establishing the base of the macro Fibonacci for BTC at 37k. We knew the top, but not the bottom. Now it appears 99% certain that the base is 38.8k. There is an intense struggle unfolding now around the revised 0.786 Fibonacci level for BTC, based on this revised Fibonacci base. The revision of this base necessarily impacts this chart. But in my view, the overall projection of a dramatic turn to the downside holds. It's just a matter of how far down it goes.
评论:
10 Mar 2021 08:08:31: I've been detailing what I've been seeing that relates to this post here:
I was seeing at the macro level a confluence that suggested a strong rejection at $55k. While I still want to see a 4-hourly close above $55k, presently with no sell walls forming above $55k, and with no dramatic news of BTC inflows to exchanges, a new all time high is in sight, and the macro analysis of Fibonacci level confluence suggesting a turn to the downside at $55k is invalid. I'd say I'm 80-90% sure it's wrong.
评论:
10 Mar 2021 18:22:00: I'm calling the macro analysis detailed in the chart of this post as INVALIDATED.
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