Total Market Cap: At A Crossroads
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As we head into next week, markets have been heavily bracing for the FEDs Rate Hike on May 3rd or 4th. War is escalating in Ukraine, World Food Supplies are in disarray, Inflation is still at historical levels, Energy is soaring, and Supply Chains continue to struggle.
There are so many Macro challenges building up that simply put, they can't be ignored; No matter how irrational the market wants to be.
I truly feel greed has taken over and most investing has become gambling (Warren Buffet recently said this). Especially in the Crypto space.
Who buys because they believe in the Utility of the coin and who buys simply to flip it for profit?
Its become a side hustle ever since the First Top in May 2021. Euphoria hit all markets from the 2020 BOOM and everything exploded. When ALL things go UP, this is rather unusual.
Usually, especially historically, these characteristics would align with this mystical "Blow off the top" but you know it's never enough.
We even have seen a second round of a bullish wave in July 2021, shortly after the original drop in May.
But again, it simply was not enough.
With every pump and dump, everyone wants more and more.
Profits, profits, profits. Leverage, leverage, leverage.
Even in the face of the absolute worst Economic/World conditions we have seen in MOST of our lifetime!
Investing has turned into legitimate degenerate gambling between Stock Options and ALT Coins, and the market will correct as far as it needs to in order to cleanse this mentality.
Back in 2020 when the MEME stocks first took off and retail flooded the market like never before in history, that was the first signal of a Cyclical Top coming in. If everyone is already flooded in, where does this extra money come from? These Cycles take a very long time to play out and to this day no one wants to even consider it.
There are two paths forward for this next week:
Scenario #1: Markets absorb this 0.50% or 0.75% Rate Hike and bounces
Scenario #2: Markets can't sustain the hike and loses all major supports.
Both Stocks and Crypto are laying on critical support; I am leaning 60 / 40 odds in favor of Scenario #2.
Let me know what you guys think!
There are so many Macro challenges building up that simply put, they can't be ignored; No matter how irrational the market wants to be.
I truly feel greed has taken over and most investing has become gambling (Warren Buffet recently said this). Especially in the Crypto space.
Who buys because they believe in the Utility of the coin and who buys simply to flip it for profit?
Its become a side hustle ever since the First Top in May 2021. Euphoria hit all markets from the 2020 BOOM and everything exploded. When ALL things go UP, this is rather unusual.
Usually, especially historically, these characteristics would align with this mystical "Blow off the top" but you know it's never enough.
We even have seen a second round of a bullish wave in July 2021, shortly after the original drop in May.
But again, it simply was not enough.
With every pump and dump, everyone wants more and more.
Profits, profits, profits. Leverage, leverage, leverage.
Even in the face of the absolute worst Economic/World conditions we have seen in MOST of our lifetime!
Investing has turned into legitimate degenerate gambling between Stock Options and ALT Coins, and the market will correct as far as it needs to in order to cleanse this mentality.
Back in 2020 when the MEME stocks first took off and retail flooded the market like never before in history, that was the first signal of a Cyclical Top coming in. If everyone is already flooded in, where does this extra money come from? These Cycles take a very long time to play out and to this day no one wants to even consider it.
There are two paths forward for this next week:
Scenario #1: Markets absorb this 0.50% or 0.75% Rate Hike and bounces
Scenario #2: Markets can't sustain the hike and loses all major supports.
Both Stocks and Crypto are laying on critical support; I am leaning 60 / 40 odds in favor of Scenario #2.
Let me know what you guys think!
注释
To expand on this, here is the decoupling of the BTC/USD Ratio which I recently noticed: This has only happened TWICE in a significant way
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