BTC SCENARIO USING ANOTHER INDICATOR - THE TOTAL MARKET CAP
Hello traders, to be honest I am using this chart as the BTC one was so full of upside resistances for BTC that I (an you) could not read anything. Jokes aside, after a good recovery in the past months form the terrifying lows, it is time to think. This chart gives us a slightly different picture, as the 50MA has already been broken (even if it is descending), contrarily to btc-only charts.
The uncertainty is visible also form the Long/Short ratio obtained considering holders (hence people not reactive to the price movements): the value is 0.9, almost 1, meaning that for each buyer there is a seller. 50% probability of being onthe right side.
So, will the uptrend continue or we are gonna see a huge drop? First thing I would like to say is: forget to enter again at 3800-4000. As I said many times, that was an overreaction, and if prices would have stayed longer than 1 day there, it would have been a problem. If it goes there again, well, I do not think that buy BTC would be a good idea. Would be a failure signal, with halving in sight also.
Said that, a retrace is due. A possible scenario would be: touch of the 200MA (the red one, 5% from here) and back to the 200weekly MA (black). +5% - 20%. But can it be that "easy" and "by the book"?
I personally won't like to lose a potential 20% to wait for that 5%, so I am entering the short shortly. As soon as this value goes below the 50MA daily, I will enter. Alternatively, I will wait for the 200daily touch.
Also, the 38% retracement of the last leg up is exactly at the same height of the 200w. That is my target for the short.
The uncertainty is visible also form the Long/Short ratio obtained considering holders (hence people not reactive to the price movements): the value is 0.9, almost 1, meaning that for each buyer there is a seller. 50% probability of being onthe right side.
So, will the uptrend continue or we are gonna see a huge drop? First thing I would like to say is: forget to enter again at 3800-4000. As I said many times, that was an overreaction, and if prices would have stayed longer than 1 day there, it would have been a problem. If it goes there again, well, I do not think that buy BTC would be a good idea. Would be a failure signal, with halving in sight also.
Said that, a retrace is due. A possible scenario would be: touch of the 200MA (the red one, 5% from here) and back to the 200weekly MA (black). +5% - 20%. But can it be that "easy" and "by the book"?
I personally won't like to lose a potential 20% to wait for that 5%, so I am entering the short shortly. As soon as this value goes below the 50MA daily, I will enter. Alternatively, I will wait for the 200daily touch.
Also, the 38% retracement of the last leg up is exactly at the same height of the 200w. That is my target for the short.
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As mentioned, I opened a short as soon as the total market cap fell below the 50MA daily.
Let's move on the BTC chart to see the possible targets and SL, will make an update soon.